Bitcoin has risen 3.74% from its January 25 low, reaching $89,300 at the time of writing. The move came after US President Donald Trump said they would stop imposing new tariffs following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
This development eased uncertainty in the macro market, but Bitcoin’s price trend remains bearish.
AMBCrypto reported that whale balances were rising as retail investors left.
There is reason for a bullish Bitcoin reaction as geopolitical uncertainties appear to be subsiding. The FOMC meeting will inject additional volatility into the market, but the consolidation around $90,000 needs decisive spot flows to trigger a recovery.
If there is recovery.
Traditional Bitcoin top signals fail
In one message on XCryptoQuant Analyst Julio Moreno believed that the crypto market was trying to create stories that fit their prejudices.
When they fail, they come up with the next one, missing what the actual data says: that Bitcoin is now bearish.
“S2F has failed. The power law has failed. M2 has failed. The business cycle has failed. The latest model to try to bottom Bitcoin seems to be the BTC/Gold ratio, which will obviously show that Bitcoin is vastly undervalued relative to gold. Fits the narrative.”
Analyst Axel Adler Jr also reported that the crypto winter is deepening. This was not a good sign for investors who saw the current bearishness as part of a pullback ahead of new all-time highs.
This can be extremely confusing because some of the older (though less serious) indicators, such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, didn’t even come close to a market top. The highest prices BTC reached in this cycle were in the “Accumulate” zone.
In 2017 the extremes were tested and in 2021 the extremes were approached. The current one was a long way off if a crypto winter was indeed underway.
The Pi Cycle Top indicator also did not give a sell signal. It had successfully predicted the market top in the previous three cycles. Like the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, the current cycle was vastly overestimated.
Unless, of course, you’re willing to accept that Bitcoin could indeed soar to new highs above $150,000 in 2026.
Final thoughts
- Onchain analysts agreed that the data showed a Bitcoin bear market was coming.
- This went against what traditional and less commonly used indicators, such as the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, said.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.