Is the market closer to a repeat of a 2022-style bear market?
Based on historical patterns, this possibility cannot be ruled out. Moreover, one key factor has weakened even further since the 2022 cycle, making the situation even tougher CryptoQuant’s opinion that we may see a repeat scenario.
According to AMBCrypto, the cycle after the halving in 2024 is the weakest yet. For perspective: Bitcoin [BTC] rose 1.3k% in 2017 and 60% in 2021 during the first year after the halving, only to hit bear markets in 2018 and 2022.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Fast forward to the last cycle after the halving, BTC’s year-end ROI stood at -6.3% in 2025, showing how muted the returns are compared to previous cycles. Naturally, the question arises: what has changed?
The rise of ETFs has dampened the effect of scarcity-induced rallies. ETFs see billions coming in weekly outflow while the market averts the risk. Simply put, institutional flows limit the upside that used to fuel big gains.
The result? A growing loss of conviction. Unlike the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, which followed massive rallies, Bitcoin’s 20% decline so far in 2026 is the result of loss realization instead of a pure correction after euphoria.
The question, of course, is: Is Bitcoin on track for a weaker cycle than 2022?
Stress in the Bitcoin market continues
Bitcoin is showing a stress pattern very similar to that of May 2022.
According to CryptoQuant dataBitcoin UTXOs in loss (%) have re-entered the 27-30% zone, indicating that a large portion of market participants have moved from profit to unrealized loss.
At the same time, Glassnode reports the 3D-SMA of net realized profit and loss of –$317 million/day, a level last seen in December 2022. Taken together, these numbers suggest that loss realization is gaining momentum.
Source: CryptoQuant
This particularly strengthens AMBCrypto’s position.
The difference between the 2022 bear market and Bitcoin’s ongoing 20% correction is significant. While previous bear markets followed huge rallies, the current decline is largely driven by participants realizing losses.
In this context it makes sense analysts shout the BTC cycle is ‘weaker’ than 2022. With ETF flows limiting the uptrend and data showing stress, 2026 could be the weakest bear market yet after the halving.
Final thoughts
- Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin’s 20% decline in 2026 is driven by participants realizing losses rather than profit-taking after the rally.
- ETF outflows and on-chain stress numbers indicate that 2026 could be the mildest post-halving bear market yet.