Bitcoin whale inflows into Binance soared, noted crypto analyst Darkfost. Generally, the increased inflow of crypto assets into an exchange reflects increased selling pressure on the Bitcoin price.
The Whale Inflow Ratio works by comparing the BTC inflows from the 10 largest transactions to the total inflows.
A seven-day moving average smooths out the signals, making trend interpretation easier.
Source: Darkfost on X
Between February 2 and 15, the whale influx increased from 0.4 to 0.62. This was a clear sign that the whales were responsible for a larger portion of the inflow into Binance.
It underlined the uncertain market conditions analyst wrote.
AMBCrypto had reported that capitulation was localized for short-term holders. Continued pressure from larger holders could increase structural pressure on Bitcoin [BTC]which underwent a controlled debt reduction.
Short-term price expectations for Bitcoin
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr used the Short-Term Holder (STH, 155 days or younger) Spend Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) to demonstrate profit-taking under pressure.
The statistic has been below 1 for the past few weeks, indicating that coins were sold at a loss.
During the recent jump to $70.9k, the daily SOPR briefly rose above 1. The price immediately underwent another correction and the benchmark is dropped to 0.975.
The weekly STH SOPR remained below 1, indicating continued selling pressure on a weekly basis.
In addition, the STH MVRV ratio had fallen below -1 standard deviation of the 155-day average MVRV.
For your context, the MVRV ratio, or market value versus realized value, is used to calculate whether these holders are incurring a loss.
In general, values below -1 STD imply oversold zones. It should increase from 0.75 to above 0.82, the lower limit of the normal range (within 1 STD), to indicate a relief of structural pressure.
The combination of STH SOPR and MVRV meant that any share price rise will likely be sold aggressively. In the short term, this meant there was a risk of a Bitcoin price drop to $65,000.
Despite the short-term volatility, institutional conviction in BTC remains strong. JPMorgan still believes the Bitcoin price could rise to $266,000 by 2026.
Final summary
- Bitcoin price could drop to $65,000 later this week.
- The onchain statistics showed that short-term holders were willing to aggressively sell any BTC over.