On August 14, Kevin Kelly, co-founder of prominent crypto research firm Delphi Digital as long as some interesting insights about Bitcoin and the crypto market in general. According to Kelly, the crypto market moves in consistent cycles and we are currently in the early stages of a new cycle based on market data.
Using the leading cryptocurrency as a benchmark, Kelly states that a crypto cycle usually begins with Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high (ATH) value, followed by an 80% loss in the following year. After that, BTC would experience a market recovery for two years before embarking on a bullish run to reach another ATH.
The interplay between the crypto cycle and macroeconomic signals
Based on Kelly’s analysis, a typical crypto cycle occurs within four years and the events are driven by a number of factors in the larger macro business cycle.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Relatively Muted – What Could Drive a Sharp Drop?
The analyst noted that Bitcoin, for example, usually hits new price spikes in the same period as the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Index — an economic indicator that tracks the health of the manufacturing sector in the United States.
He said:
BTC price spikes are happening around the same time that the ISM is showing signs of an all-time high. Active addresses, total transaction volumes, total costs – they all peaked next to highs in the ISM. While the business cycle is showing signs of recovery, so are levels of network activity…
Because of this similarity in market movement, Kevin notes that turning points in a typical business cycle have proven to be a favorable time to increase one’s exposure to risky assets like Bitcoin.
Source: Delphi Digital
Bitcoin poised to hit new ATH by Q4 2024, says Kelly
Interestingly, Kevin Kelly stated in his analysis that the ISM is currently heading towards the end of a two-year downtrend, indicating that BTC prices may soon begin to rise in the coming months.
To support his long-term bullish price prediction, Kelly highlights several other factors, including the Bitcoin Halving event set to take place in April 2024.
The Delphi Digital co-founder stated that the last two Bitcoin halvings had occurred 18 months after BTC’s price fell and 7 months before they rallied for another ATH.
Related reading: Bernstein predicts spot ETFs could claim 10% of the Bitcoin market if given the go-ahead
Based on this historical data, BTC could well hit a new ATH by Q4 2024. However, as with all predictions, Kelly stated that there are certain risk factors involved.
First, he predicted that the BTC market is likely to soon witness modest selling pressure or price consolidation, especially after the market’s strong recovery over the past 9 months.
In addition, he also highlighted the possibility that the business cycle shows a false bearish end – as seen in March 2020 – or that the bearish end does not reach as quickly as predicted.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading around $29,333.89, down 0.12% on its last day. However, the token’s daily trading volume is up 26.38% and is valued at $12.2 billion
BTC trading at $29,322 on the daily chart | Source: BTCUSD chart on Tradingview.com
Featured image from LinkedIn, chart from Tradingview