Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading or other advice and is solely the opinion of the author.
- The price action in the daily time frame showed a bearish structure.
- Fibonacci retracement levels hinted that further losses were likely for BTC.
In the past two weeks, Bitcoin [BTC] has traded in the $29k – $29.2k region. There was lower volatility during this period, with the exception of the spike to $30,000 on August 1 and 2 and the subsequent retracement.
Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price Forecast 2023-24
At the time of writing, Bitcoin had yet to close a daily trading session below $29,000. But the recent rejection from the $30,000 area showed bearish intent.
An increase in selling pressure could push BTC into the $26,000 demand zone
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
The negative correlation between Bitcoin and stock market indices showed that despite strong buyers in the traditional financial sector, BTC saw a notable lack of demand. The RSI has shown bearish momentum since July 24 and has remained below the neutral 50.
The OBV has been relatively flat for the past two weeks, but has been on a slowly declining trend since early July. In terms of price action, BTC market structure was bearish on the daily time frame. The regions marked in red at $30.2k and $29.7k were resistance zones with a shorter time period.
To the south, a bullish order block sat in the $25k area, highlighted in cyan. A series of Fibonacci retracement levels (yellow) showed that the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels were at $27.3k and $26.2k. Therefore, a bounce from these levels after a retracement was a possibility.
The exchange stream showed additional withdrawals over the past week
Source: Sanitation
Bitcoin’s age stat used saw occasional spikes in July, with the most recent on July 27, but nothing significant since then. The number of active addresses has remained stable over the past few days, indicating good network participation from users.
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The balance of the alternating current showed outflows over the past four days. This showed that investors were withdrawing BTC from exchanges, indicating accumulation.
The evidence showed that bearish pressures were more likely for Bitcoin in the coming weeks. This bearish idea would be invalidated if Bitcoin can climb above the $30k level and flip the $30.2k zone to support.