Journalist
Posted:
- The win rate of Bitcoin supply has exceeded 80%.
- While long-term holders are reluctant to take profits, short-term holders have taken a different approach.
Bitcoin’s Recent Rally [BTC] The price has helped 83.6% of the coin’s total circulating supply remain profitable, Glassnode found in a new report.
According to Glassnode, BTC’s current circulating profit supply has surpassed historical averages by 83% and is approaching the +1 standard deviation upper band of 90%.
Source: Glassnode
AMBCrypto’s historical assessment of Bitcoin, over the past five years, showed that every time the circulating profit supply approached 90%, the market entered “the early stages of the euphoric phase of a bull market.”
In this phase, most coins would be kept profitable.
Glassnode noted that the current market cycle represents a bear/bull transition phase, with the percentage of BTC’s circulating supply between 50% and 90%.
“The market has been in the bear/bull transition phase for the past ten months as it recovered from the 2022 bear trend. Most of 2023 has traded below the all-time average, with October’s rally the first sustained breakout was above that,” the report said.
But there’s a catch
Despite the increase in the profit rate of BTC’s circulating supply, the unrealized profit is still considered ‘modest’.
Read Bitcoins [BTC] Price prediction 2023-24
Glassnode found that the recent rise in Bitcoin profitability has not motivated long-term holders of the coin to part with their holdings to book profits.
A review of BTC’s unrealized gains found that it remains at its historical average of 49%. The report described this level as:
“Significantly lower than the extreme levels of over 60% seen in the euphoria phase of previous bull markets.”
Glassnode further opined:
“This suggests that while a significant portion of supply is profitable, most have a cost base only moderately below the current spot price.”
Source: Glassnode
As long-term BTC (LTH) holders hold on to their coins, their share of the total circulating supply continues to rise. At 15 million BTC at the time of writing, the leading coin’s LTH supply has continuously reached new all-time highs since November 2022.
On the other hand, short-term (STH) holders who regularly take profits have seen a decline in their coin holdings.
Glass node found:
“Short-Term Holders supply has fallen to 2.3 million BTC, which is essentially a new low.”