Bitcoin [BTC] fell another 3.9% over the past 24 hours, extending the price decline to a local low of $61.4K. Strategy announced a sale of 32 BTC, its first since 2022. Large outflows from spot ETFs helped drive the price even lower.
As expected, this caused a lot of capitulation, especially among short-term holders who bought during the rally of the past three months.
AMBCrypto had warned that a cascade of prolonged liquidations could hit the market, especially as it was already under heavy selling pressure. Other figures pointed to reduced demand and increased distribution of holders.
Exploring Bitcoin’s Bearish Regime Shift
The impulse performance metric has a fast and slow impulse component. Both were bearish after the recession of the past two weeks. The fast impulse was near -90, and the slow impulse was down to -59, according to crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr.
It underlined the deteriorating Bitcoin market conditions. The current regime has been firmly bearish, and the slow momentum should rise back into positive territory to signal a regime change.
The changing regime was supported by a change in customer demand trends. Since March, aggressive buyers had kept the 30-day net taker volume position in positive territory. However, the histogram recently turned negative.
The relief rally was fueled by hopeful buyers, but this demand has since been exhausted. The momentum and net taker volumes confirmed a bearish scenario currently underway that could be difficult to recover from.
In a post on X, analyst Darkfost pointed out that BTC exchange flows have changed direction dramatically. In April there was a weekly outflow of 2,500 BTC. Recently, this weekly average changed to an inflow of 2,410 BTC.
The increase in currency inflows indicated increased selling pressure. At a time when the US stock market is soaring, bearish crypto trends could prompt investors to jump ship.
The decline in the Coinbase Premium Index in recent weeks reflected the lack of willingness of US investors to pay a premium for BTC. In other words, demand could dry up and conviction may be low.
Final summary
- The shift from the slow momentum metric highlighted a bearish regime shift, in line with the downtrend in higher time frames.
- Falling Coinbase premiums and bearish net-taker volumes underlined the selling pressure on BTC.