Bitcoin fell nearly 15% in June, an accelerated plunge following reports of Strategy’s BTC sell-off.
And market fears increased as the community speculated that the recent Strategy’s dump could be just the beginning of a much bigger sell-off. At the time of writing, Strategy founder Michael Saylor had neither confirmed nor allayed these fears.
Against this backdrop, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index value fell to an ‘extreme fear’ level of 11 as BTC dropped to $61.2K.
When will the Bitcoin price recover?
Interestingly, the current fear levels in the market also marked the local bottoms in February and March. But analysts predicted a sharp recovery may not happen immediately.
After the extended decline to February’s low, analyst Peter Brandt said the next bottom could occur in October.
The way I see it, Bitcoin has reached its original target at the February low. This doesn’t mean BTC can’t move lower or have a terminal washout. I don’t see a tradable low until October.
It is worth pointing out that the stock market recovered as BTC cut lower and deepened year-to-date (YTD) losses to 25%.
As for when the crypto asset could stage a real recovery, Wintermute’s head of OTC trading, Jake Ostrovskis, said:
What we need to get people interested in crypto and Bitcoin again is probably some of the air coming out of AI trading.
Another analyst, Benjamin Cowen, echoed a similar sentiment, noting that such a rotation could mark the true beginning of BTC’s next four-year cycle.
So far, Elon Musk’s SpaceX is expected to go public on June 12 (initial public offering, IPO). Anthropic (parent company behind Claude) is expected to make its public debut in September, while OpenAI could also follow later in 2026.
Sophisticated investors were also actively hedging such AI trading and its impact on BTC.
According to Deribit, options traders, especially institutional investors, were increasingly hedging against a possible dip to $50,000 and $45,000. In the past 24 hours, these were the most traded put contracts with an expiration date at the end of June.
Final summaryThe The
- The Bitcoin fear index is at levels last seen at the February and March lows
- However, analysts warned that BTC’s recovery could remain elusive until the expected AI IPOs are over