Bitcoin failed to break the key $94,000 level on December 3, underscoring the market’s increasingly fragile structure. On-chain data shows that more than a quarter of the total BTC supply has ended up in unrealized losses.
The rejection corresponds to a critical threshold identified by Glassnode’s Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, which tracks the cost basis of large segments of circulating supply to measure structural risk in the market.
Bitcoin-on-chain quantiles exhibit increasing structural risk
According to Glass junctionBitcoin fell below its cost base quantile of 0.75 in mid-November, meaning that more than 25% of the supply, which was mainly held by the top buyers of the past few months, is now underwater.
Historically, this zone marks a crucial phase when markets balance between capitulation pressure from late entrants and the early stages of seller exhaustion, often seen around a cyclical low.
Source: Glassnode
Since crossing this threshold, Bitcoin has shown increased sensitivity to macro conditions and has struggled to regain upside momentum.
The rejection at $94,000 confirms resistance at key cost levels
The significance of the 0.75 quantile became clear when Bitcoin attempted to reclaim the $94,000 region on December 3, only to reverse sharply and close lower.
The price is currently around $92,500, reinforcing the idea that the market cannot achieve stability until it recovers the 0.75 quantile near $95,800.
Source: TradingView
A more decisive structural shift would require a break above the 0.85 quantile, at around $106,200. This is an area where long-term trends historically strengthen and downside risk generally decreases.
Bitcoin technical indicators reflect weakening momentum
The market structure on the daily chart corresponds to the picture within the chain. The DMI is showing waning bullish strength as the positive directional index loses momentum while sellers regain traction.
The ADX, while still high, is starting to level off, indicating compression and indecision in the prevailing trend.
The failed higher-low progression on the chart further indicates that buyers do not have the conviction to overcome the resistance embedded in the current cost-basis distribution.
Macro sensitivity increases as the underwater supply grows
With over a quarter of supply lost, market sentiment remains unusually dependent on external catalysts.
Even moderate macro shifts, such as moves in bond yields or changes in liquidity conditions, could exert outsized influence until Bitcoin can regain at least the 0.75 quantile and ease pressure on recent buyers.
Until then, price action sits between two possible outcomes: a deeper reset driven by capitulation from top buyers or a stabilization phase aided by seller exhaustion.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s failure at $94K confirms resistance levels on the chain and highlights how exposed recent buyers remain below $95.8K.
- The next decisive step depends on whether the market absorbs this underwater supply or succumbs to persistent macro pressures.