Bitcoin’s extended pullback from its all-time high has left traders in uncertaintyand many investors are unsure or the worst of the decline is already over.
An analyst known as Jelle on The price data, he argues, supports a more worrying interpretation of how Bitcoin’s current pullback will play out.
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Bitcoin’s current decline is still smaller than previous bear markets
Crypto analyst Jelle issued an interesting warning for investors who may be underestimating the depth and duration of the Bitcoin bear markets. In a post on These sound serious on the surface. However, they are relatively modest compared to the historical record.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s previous bear markets have pushed the asset much deeper below their peak. The market collapse following the 2017 rally ultimately erased around 84% of Bitcoin’s value, while the bear market that followed the 2021 cycle bottomed out at almost 77%.
A look at the chart Jelle shared, shown below, illustrates how consistent the cyclical structure has been. Since 2014, Bitcoin has oscillated through periods of sustained accumulation and declines. Each bull run lasts about 150 to 152 weeks, and each bear market lasts somewhere between 52 and 58 weeks.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL On X
The current bear phase is, in that respect, well shorter than the duration at which previous cycles bottomed out. If we predict the bear market phase from the all-time high in October 2025, the current correction would last until sometime around October 2026.
“Unfortunately, I think there is more pain ahead for BTC,” Jelle said.
The RSI calls on investors to wait
The analyst also examined Bitcoin’s relative strength index indicator, which has repeatedly provided clues as to when bear markets are nearing completion. in another post. Jelle noted that every previous bear market eventually bottomed out when the weekly RSI fell below the 37 level. Once the indicator falls below that threshold, it often drops further before the Bitcoin price reaches its final low.
Bitcoin has fallen about 30% since the RSI first fell below that level in the current cycle. That decline is smaller than what happened previous cycles, although not enough to stand out as a clear anomaly given the limited number of examples.
According to Jelle, what is more important is the pattern that forms at the end of a bear market. The latest low usually appears when the RSI creates a higher low, close to the level recorded during the previous bottom. That higher low can occur alongside a lower price tier or a higher price tier.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoJelleNL On X
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When price forms a lower low but the RSI prints a higher low, the price action produces a bullish divergence on the weekly chart. That signal has always preceded the transition from bear market conditions to the next accumulation phase. Until that structure becomes visible, patience is the best approach.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView