Macro strategist Jim Bianco says the approval of a spot-market Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) could ultimately become a sell-the-news event.
In a new interview on Real Vision, Bianco looks back on Facebook’s initial public offering (IPO), one of the most highly anticipated IPOs in recent history.
The investor notes that shares of Facebook initially went public at $28, and despite being hyped by market participants, fell all the way to $11. Bianco says such a scenario is not outside the realm of possibility for Bitcoin if a spot ETF is approved.
“So I worry that if this is going to behave at all like a TradFi market – in other words, be efficient as a TradFi market – what will happen when the real approval comes, and not just another fake story, are you? I have a few days of rally and that’s it, and then the price will move sideways for a while before falling.
I tend to look – if you want a quick example of that – I remember 2012 when Facebook went public, it was going to be the largest IPO in human history, and it went public at $28…
[The question was] “What day will it reach $100?” Not if it’s going to hit $100, but ‘what day will it hit $100?’
That’s what happened, about three or four years later it went to $100. But first it went to $11. First you lost two-thirds of your money and then everything went the way you thought it would. And that’s what I fear about the spot Bitcoin ETF, is that a similar pattern could play out before you get all the benefits that everyone thinks is coming.”
At the time of writing, BTC is at $37,002.
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