The Bitcoin market has suffered from disappointing performance in recent weeks, leading to a price retest of the $100,000 support zone. However, an exciting on-chain evaluation portends positive price action in the near future.
Bitcoin Price Below Average Cost — Details
On November 8, popular market analyst Burak Kesmeci said shared on X the underlying reasons behind his expectations of a bullish reversal. Kesmeci’s post mainly hinges on Bitcoin: 90-day market price vs. realized price gradient oscillator. Essentially, this indicator functions as a means to track the distance of the deviation of Bitcoin’s market price from its realized price over the past 90 days.
A positive value of the measure indicates a faster rising market price of Bitcoin, compared to the average cost basis (realized price), showing growing bullish momentum. A negative reading, on the other hand, indicates a significant drop in the market price below the realized price, a sign of bearish momentum, which could extend into a ‘cooling off’ phase.
In the post on As previously explained, this indicates that the Bitcoin price has fallen sharply below its historical cost base, a development that could indicate that the flagship cryptocurrency’s price momentum has reached a state of ‘extreme cooldown’.
More simply put, Bitcoin investors are paying far less than the amount their recent buyers have paid on average to acquire Bitcoin. If more investors were to buy Bitcoin around its current price, there could be a total or significant absorption of what already appears to be exhausted bearish pressure.
Notably, Kemesci also referred to past events to support his prediction of an impending price rebound. According to the analyst, periods when this measure fell below -1 STDV often preceded the end of downtrends and the beginning of price increases. We’ve seen this happen twice in recent months: first in April, when Bitcoin saw a rise from about $82,000 to $100,000; and second, where the price grew from $108,000 in July to $124,000. So if historical data is reliable, Bitcoin price could soon reach a new price bottom, after which a significant move upward would likely follow.
Bitcoin price overview
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is at a valuation of around $102,023, which reflects a slight loss of around 0.94% since the last day.