The broader market continues to defy mainstream expectations.
For starters, markets had priced in a “long-awaited” Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Instead, the Court delayed its decision again, overwhelming expectations.
The result? Bitcoin [BTC] rose 1.65% and dropped back to the $97,000 mark at the time of writing.
Notably, this marks the first retest of $97,000 since BTC lost the level two months ago. In short, macro volatility had clearly turned in favor of the bulls.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Naturally, the rally led to another short squeeze, wipe away $275 million in short positions across the market. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index jumpedjust six points away from entering the “greed” zone.
Looking back at market expectations, however, it wasn’t just the Supreme Court’s delay that caught traders off guard. The latest PPI report also came in warmer than expected, with an increase of 3% compared to the expected 2.7%.
As a result, Bitcoin’s current rally is at a crossroads.
The slowdown pushed BTC higher, but fading expectations of rate cuts are starting to weigh. With the FOMC less than two weeks away, the question is: is this outbreak real or just another “fakeout” in the run-up to a liquidation?
Bitcoin recovers as macro and micro drivers align
Given the recent volatility, it’s worth riding BTC’s latest rebound.
Technically, BTC has been consolidating below the $97,000 range for the past two months. In this context, being last recovery is interpreted as a recovery after a corrective phase and not as the start of a new uptrend.
Simply put, this move was fueled by a mix of spot ETF flows, all taking place in a ‘temporarily’ stable macro environment. While this pushed Bitcoin higher, it is still bound to a certain range until these factors strengthen or fade away.
Source: CryptoQuant
In short, this reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is currently at a crossroads.
Bitcoin retested $97,000 as micro and macro drivers converged. The Supreme Court’s delay led to a shift in risk ETFs registered In total, there has been an inflow of $840 million, returning demand to pre-crash levels in October.
However, in a market where flows keep pace with the macroeconomic situation, the question is: what happens when the Federal Reserve (the Federal Reserve) takes action? stops interest rate cutsand the Supreme Court’s stay finally disappears? A BTC cascade cannot be ruled out.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin retested $97,000 as spot demand, ETF inflows, fueled by a Supreme Court delay and temporarily stable macro conditions.
- With the PPI hotter than expected and the FOMC less than two weeks away, the main question is whether this breakout is real or a ‘fake out’, allowing a BTC cascade.