A crypto market analyst has shared a new technical analysis, outlining reasons why the Bitcoin price has not yet reached its peak a cycle bottom. Using a charting framework called the Bear Bands alongside the Halving Cycles Theory, the analyst argues that while there is currently a short-term recovery, the broader bear market still has significant time and more downsides ahead before a final price floor is reached.
Why Bitcoin Price Hasn’t Bottomed Yet
According to market expert Crypto Con on bounce that saw Bitcoin risee above $71,000 after the first major low below $64,000 is a normal reaction and does not indicate that the Bitcoin bear market has ended. The analyst declared that everything unfolds exactly as expected, both in terms of timing and price, in line with the Halving Cycles Theory. He further noted that the price sitting right at the first low of the Bear Bands indicator actually strengthens his bearish case for Bitcoin.
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Crypto Con shares a detailed price chart and uses Bitcoin’s entire price history, dating back to 2011, and maps recurring bear market sequences that have played out in every major cycle. Each of these cycles followed a consistent three-phase structure, going through an initial trough, a second trough, and a final cycle bottom before any sustained recovery occurred. Based on this series, Crypto Con argues that the Bitcoin market has not yet reached a bottom, but could be headed there soon.
The Bear Bands framework on the chart places Bitcoin’s first low at around $64,000, a level it already reached in February. The second low for the current cycle is projected near $44,500, indicating it is the largest cryptocurrency in the world still has significant downside ahead before the next major support is even tested.
Below this level, Crypto Con has placed BTC’s cycle bottom around $28,500, which is the last and deepest projected level before a real turnaround could be contemplated. With current prices currently above $72,000, a drop to $28,500 would represent a staggering decline of more than 60%, reinforcing the analyst’s belief that the bear market is far from over.
Expected timeline for a BTC bear bottom
In addition to bearish price targets, the bottom timeline as outlined in Crypto Con’s analysis presents a sobering prospect for investors and traders hoping for a quick recovery. The analyst has predicted that the second low around $44,500 is not expected for another five months after he takes office.
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This places Bitcoin’s next major price crash roughly in the period from August to October 2026, as indicated on the chart. If this timeline comes to fruition, it would dash hopes of a definitive bottom line until well beyond mid-2026.
If the expected cycle bottom of $28,500 materializes, Crypto Con expects it to arrive no sooner than three months after the second low. That points toward a time frame of November 2026 to January 2027 as the earliest window in which Bitcoin could realistically find its true price floor before is starting to build a recovery.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com