Bitcoin’s price action has been struggling with bearish corrections, repeatedly failing to close daily trading sessions above $70,000. As it stands now, Bitcoin is now moves within a tight range below $70,000, and crypto analysts are still unsure about the next direction.
Some see the current structure as a basis for another push higher, but others warn of any bounce could invite new sales. Crypto analyst Sherlock is among the cautious voices, arguing on X that a rally to between $72,000 and $76,000 may not be a recovery, but a kill zone for Bitcoin bulls.
The breakeven wall of $76,000
Crypto analyst Sherlock is of the idea that any Bitcoin price recovery to $76,000 from here could actually not be a good thing. Sherlock’s argument is based on Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings. At the time of writing, the company owns 714,644 BTC at an average cost of $76,052. That supply represents about 3.4% of the total Bitcoin supply that will ever exist.
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With Bitcoin trading around $68,000, Strategy’s position is significantly underwater, and so is the company is estimated unrealized loss of approximately $5.7 billion at current prices. According to the analysts, any boost to the $74,000 to $76,000 range brings this high concentration of supply closer to breakeven.
Break-even levels often act as selling zones. Based on that perspective, the $76,000 area could be risky as it brings Strategy’s position back to the average entry price, and many large holders could consider reducing exposure.
That said, there is no indication that Strategy plans to sell. The company has repeatedly stated that it has no plans to sell its Bitcoin and has even emphasized that its balance sheet could withstand a serious downturn, including a scenario where the Bitcoin price falls below $10,000.
ETF pressure and Bitcoin cost basis
Sherlock also pointed to Spot Bitcoin ETFs as another source of pressure that could lead to a bull trap. As it stands, approximately 1.28 million BTC are currently held in these funds, with an estimated average entry price between $84,000 and $90,000.
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Since the end of 2025, these ETFs have recorded net outflows of more than $6 billion, and the Bitcoin price could be under pressure again even if it reaches the average entry price. He also noted that about 63% of invested Bitcoin assets have a cost basis of more than $88,000, meaning a large share of buyers in 2025. sit on losses, and a rally to their entry level could also be a bull trap.
Therefore, a climb to $72,000 to $76,000 could be a bull trap. If not, the next trap could be around $88,000. That said, if every breakeven level led to selling, Bitcoin would may never form a bottom. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $66,980.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com