Quantum computing has made some progress, but not to the extent that it could pose a threat to the Bitcoin network and its associated wallets.
According to Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and a cypherpunk once mistaken for Satoshi, quantum computers cannot currently crash BTC.
He discredited a post claiming that the only thing that could crash BTC by 99% from $87,000 to $3 is a quantum computer that can crack wallets and the entire network.
Last month, back said that quantum computers can only become stable in the next 20 to 40 years and could pose a threat to BTC.
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Still, the network may be secure by the time the risk becomes real. In fact, Blockstream researchers are already developing proposals to upgrade the Bitcoin network to a quantum-safe network.
However, not everyone believes the threat will happen in twenty years.
Why quantum-safe BTC is urgent
Perhaps one of the most vocal investors about the risks of quantum computing is Charles Edwards, CEO of Capriole Investments. According to him, BTC has lagged behind gold in terms of price development this year due to the risk.
The best solution, him addedis to reach a consensus by 2026 and make the Bitcoin network quantum-proof.
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In terms of perspective, quantum computers differ from today’s classical computers because they use so-called qubits instead of typical solid-state chips that operate on 0 and 1. However, they are currently difficult to create, scale, and protect against errors (such as overheating).
So far, IBM has a working prototype with about 1,000 qubits, while Google and Microsoft have managed 50 and 8 qubits, respectively. Unfortunately, error rates were extremely high.
To crack current Bitcoin cryptography, a quantum computer must have at least 2,500 logical and stable qubits that can function error-free for days. That’s why experts like Adam Back view the threat as a long-term problem, not a short- or medium-term risk.
Bitcoin holders seek relative safety
In fact, most of the top companies pushing for quantum computers will be at risk if they develop one without the right safeguards. Based on this premise, even Strategy founder Michael Saylor has done so downplayed the medium-term threats of quantum computing to Bitcoin.
“Google and Microsoft will not sell you a quantum computer that breaks modern cryptography because it will destroy them, the US government and the banking system.”
In the meantime, some top holders are already migrating to more resistant Bitcoin addresses (Segwhite, blue) from the latest format (taproot, purple).
According to BTC analyst Willie WooSegwit reduces ‘long range quantum attacks’ if the address is not reused.
The number of Segwit addresses has been increasing since 2024.
Source: Glassnode
Final thoughts
- Cryptography experts believe it could take decades before quantum computers can crack the Bitcoin network.
- Some investors have already migrated to relatively safe Segwit addresses.