Journalist
Posted:
The fourth quarter has proven bearish, especially for Digital Asset Treasuries.
For context, DATs with single-asset-heavy portfolios have come under increasing scrutiny recently. And with Bitcoin [BTC] because it dominates so many balance sheets, the spotlight isn’t just on MicroStrategy [MSTR].
Instead, given the growing dominance of BTC-focused DATs in the market, it is clear that this issue focuses on a broader network. The chart below makes it clear: the top 100 DATs now collectively own 1,073,832 BTC.
Source: BitcoinTreasuries.net
Of course, only MSTR holds more than 50% of its treasury in BTC.
The risk of MSCI excluding MSTR is therefore meaningful. In fact, Bloomberg analysts have already estimated a potential passive outflow of $2.8 billion if this happens, underscoring the impact on index investors.
But does this protect the rest of the BTC DATs?
Not really. Many BTC DATs are expanding their holdings, demonstrating strong belief in Bitcoin’s long-term accumulation. In this environment, staying on top of MSTR-MSCI updates is more important than ever.
On-Chain signals highlight the role of MSTR in Bitcoin DATs
There has been a significant shift in the rankings among Bitcoin DATs.
President Trump’s family, for example American Bitcoin Corp added 416 BTC, bringing the total to 4,783 BTC. The result? This move pushed the company to the 22nd largest BTC DAT, overtaking GameStop.
In short, competition among Bitcoin DATs is increasing. Therefore, MSCI’s response to MSTR is being closely watched, highlighting that its impact extends beyond MSTR as more companies accumulate BTC.
Source: Strategy.com
Recently, MSTR responded officially to MSCIrequesting the withdrawal of the proposed exclusion and setting out the main reasons supporting this position. The market reacted bullishly with MSTR’s intraday stock price an increase of 3.16%.
The statistics in the chain also show improvement. The 30-day average trading volume is up $4, and the daily trading volume now exceeds that of the e-commerce platform Amazon. The highlight? MSTR’s mNAV stands at 1.18 at the time of writing.
This shows that the market valuation of MSTR is higher than its intrinsic value. With an mNAV of 1.18, the stock was trading at an 18% premium to Bitcoin-backed NAV at the time of writing, indicating strong investor confidence.
All in all: increasing competitive pressure, shifting DAT rankings, and stronger signals in the chain are setting the stage for a pivotal period, making upcoming MSCI updates a potential catalyst for Bitcoin.
Final thoughts
- MSCI’s assessment of MSTR emerges as a sector-wide risk event, increasing focus on Bitcoin-heavy government bonds.
- Strengthening on-chain metrics and a bullish market reaction to MSTR’s defense highlight growing investor confidence, making upcoming MSCI decisions a potential Bitcoin catalyst.