Bitcoins Investor sentiment is in shambles, but buried in the wreckage, a technical signal that has appeared alone at the most consequential turning points in Bitcoin history has just sprung into action again. This technical argument, built around Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index, comes as the indicator has fallen to its lowest daily value in four years, a level last seen near the 2022 bottom before BTC began its climb from $15,500 to $70,000.
Bitcoin’s RSI is back in a rare bottom zone
The Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely used momentum indicators and measures the speed and magnitude of price movements on a scale of 0 to 100. Values below 30 indicate oversold conditions. At its lowest point during the recent sale over the weekend the daily RSI dropped to just 21.8, and at the time of writing it is still around 20 degrees.
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That puts this value among the lowest ever recorded for the daily time frame, and that’s why a crypto analyst who goes by the name Crypto Tice on the social media platform believes that the Bitcoin price action might be looking at something much bigger than a normal oversold bounce.
As shown in the chart below, the red and orange zones correspond to some of Bitcoin’s most painful periods, including the 2011 bottom, the 2015 bear market low, the 2018-2019 correction, the 2022 collapse, and now the 2026 slow correction. In both cases, the bottom appeared when the Bitcoin price had already experienced a major decline, which is the same now.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @CryptoTice_ On X
Why a 200% target is possible for Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since 2024 and is currently down about 50% from its October 2025 peak above $126,000. The leading cryptocurrency now trades between $61,000 and $63,000.
Interestingly enough, the main comparison of where Bitcoin goes from here is the 2022 bottom. At the time, Bitcoin’s RSI reached a deeply oversold level as the price collapsed to around $15,500, but the bottom ultimately became the basis for a rally to $70,000 in 2024. That move represented a gain of more than 350% from the bottom of the cycle, eventually hitting its all-time high in October 2025.
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Like Bitcoin would form a comparable bottom around the current $60,000 zone, a 200% rally would put the price at a target of $180,000. A move that would imply a full recovery from 2022 to 2024 even higher levels above $200,000. The current market also has a different backdrop than 2022. Bitcoin now has spot ETFs, deeper institutional involvement and large corporate bonds influencing sentiment.
Speaking of ETFs, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have resumed their outflows complicates any soil prediction now. The technical signal from the RSI is strong, but Bitcoin price needs demand to convert the signal into a sustained rally.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com