A modest statement. A bold number. Both are on the table for Bitcoin this week, as the debate over how to read short-term streaks in price gains grows louder.
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Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson has pointed out that half of the last 24 months showed this positive returns. Based on reports, he then gave an almost 90% chance that Bitcoin would be higher in 10 months.
That jump from a simple count to a solid probability is making headlines. Careful questions need to be answered about how the probabilities were calculated and what assumptions were built into the model.
Counting positive months
Peterson based his view on a review of monthly performance data. Figures compiled by MintGlass show that Bitcoin ended the six months of 2025 on a positive note, while the remaining six ended lower.
According to the data, 50% of the last 24 months ended with a profit. Peterson said he follows this two-year rolling period to spot potential turning points in price trends.
50% of the past 24 months were positive.
This implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher in 10 months.
The average return is exp(60%)-1 = 82% => $122,000.
The data goes back to 2011. https://t.co/k4IjTisuTH pic.twitter.com/ZxfTyequjt— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) February 21, 2026
Market odds and betting
An exchange of bets shows a completely different picture. Polymarkt currently December is considered the best month of 2026 at just 17%, with November a hair above.
These numbers answer a different question than Peterson’s: They reflect market bets on which month will outperform others, not whether the price will simply be higher at some future date.
Betting markets can be blunt instruments, but they do combine the collective vision of many traders into one number.
Bitcoin price action
Price has not been calm. Bitcoin traded in a range of roughly $67,000-$68,000 this week as geopolitical tensions increased in the Middle East.
Safe haven assets like gold and oil jumped on the news streams, and Bitcoin felt the pressure as some buyers took a step back. At the same time, live tickers showed the token around 20% below its levels at the start of the year, a reminder that headline percentages hide large intraday swings.
Analysts are divided
The trading desk votes are divided. Michael van de Poppe proposed the short term green candles could be coming, prompting traders to watch for a rise. On the other hand, Peter Brandt has argued that a deeper low may not arrive until late 2026.
Both views are based on different sets of signals: one about momentum and chart structure, the other about longer cycle patterns and the risk of macro shocks.
Sentiment still low
Meanwhile, flow data from spot ETF purchases, derivatives positioning and on-chain liquidity metrics would weigh more heavily on any forecast.
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Peterson’s prediction comes as sentiment in the crypto market continues to decline, with reports indicating that discussion and activity around Bitcoin predictions have decreased. Traders appear cautious, weighing past trends against current market uncertainty.
Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView