XRP is trading at $1.11, down about 17% from its June open, after hitting a new 2026 low on June 5 and losing $8 billion in market capitalization in three sessions.
The correction comes as the asset posted its strongest ETF inflow month of the year, hitting $131.94 million in May, ahead of both Bitcoin and Ethereum products.
from Glassnode Data from June 9 points out that realizing losses is the main pressure on the price of
At the speculative peak in 2025, that ratio was 50, with gains exceeding losses 50 to 1.
Glassnode described the current value as an intense capitulation, with the total realized price of XRP being around $1.48, leaving the average holder underwater at current prices.
On the XRP Ledger, the 90-day average of total fees paid fell from 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to 500
| Signal | Last lecture | Direction | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP price | $1.11 | Bearish | Down about 17% from the June open and at the new 2026 low. |
| May ETF inflows | $131.94 million | Bullish | Regulated demand remains active despite price weakness. |
| Realized 90-day profit/loss ratio | 0.38 | Bearish | Holders realize many more losses than gains. |
| Total realized price | $1.48 | Bearish | The average holder is underwater at current prices. |
| XRP Ledger Fees | 5,900 XRP → 500 XRP | Bearish | Organic demand for transactions has collapsed by 91.5%. |
What whales actually do
CryptoQuant’s exchange flow analysis shows the outflow of XRP whales dominance reached 91.4% on Binance and 90.5% on centralized exchanges.
Whales dominate XRP exchange flows, and the data describes that structural control without distinguishing whether it reflects selling pressure or accumulation.
A separate CryptoQuant post mentions declining XRP inflows to Binance as a possible sign of this growing confidence in whalesarguing that moderate inflows of foreign exchange could keep the available sales supply limited.
The accumulation of large farmers has historically preceded recovery, and Glassnode’s loss realization and compensation data shows that the current supply of loss realization sellers and the collapse in demand for organic networks is absorbing that accumulation before it reaches the price.
| Data source | Metric | Reading | Bearish interpretation | Bullish interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CryptoQuant | XRP whale outflow dominance on Binance | 91.4% | Whales dominate the exchange flows, allowing large holders to put pressure on the price. | The dominance of the outflow does not prove that whales sell on exchanges. |
| CryptoQuant | Dominance of XRP whales outflows over CEXs | 90.5% | Centralized exchange flows are structurally caused by whales. | Concentrated flows may also reflect detention or accumulation behavior. |
| CryptoQuant | XRP inflow to Binance | Declining | Weak demand can reduce the need to send coins to exchanges. | A lower inflow may mean a reduced available sales supply. |
| Santiment | Wallets with 10M+ XRP | 45.83 billion XRP | The concentration risk remains high. | The largest wallets hold the most XRP since May 2018. |
| Santiment | Wallets with 10K+ XRP | 332,230 | Accumulation has not yet created a price floor. | The number of medium to large wallets reached a record high. |
Santiment’s data from May shows that portfolios containing at least 10 million XRP are under control 45.83 billion XRPthe highest number since May 2018. The number of wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP reached an all-time high of 332,230.
The accumulation of large farmers has historically preceded recovery, and Glassnode’s loss realization and compensation data shows that the current supply of loss realization sellers and the collapse of organic network demand are sufficient to absorb that accumulation without forming a price floor.
The ETF layer
Seven US spot XRP ETFs are now live, with approximately 923.7 million XRP in custody as of June 10, with combined assets under management of almost $1 billion.
Cumulative net inflows since its launch in November 2025 have approached $1.45 billion, and May’s monthly inflows of $131.94 million were the strongest since December, lasting 20 consecutive days before an outflow of $5.34 million on June 3 broke the streak.
CoinGlass ETF data shows that there is regulated demand for XRP has been persistentwhile price action indicates that demand has been absorbed by spot selling or loss realization, without a sustained recovery.
Standard Chartered has forecast XRP ETF inflows of $4 billion to $8 billion by 2026 if the CLARITY Act is passed, a figure well above cumulative inflows to date.
That benefit depends on a vote in the Senate, which Polymarket currently estimates at a 47% probability that the proposal will pass in 2026.
Goldman Sachs liquidated its entire $154 million XRP ETF position in the first quarter, a reminder that institutional positioning on XRP runs in both directions simultaneously.
This is solved in two ways
In the bull scenario, ETF inflows continue to increase as the CLARITY Act moves toward a minimum vote, the 332,230 large wallet holders who gathered during the price weakness bid at current levels, and Glassnode’s loss-realization ratio begins to recover as capitulating sellers exhaust their supply.
XRP stabilizes above $1.00, network fees find a bottom and the ETF bid becomes visible in the price.
Under this order, $0.90 remains a reference point on the chart where a multi-year ascending trendline exists, with the ETF bid absorbing the selling pressure before reaching that level.
In the bear scenario, Glassnode’s capitulation numbers hold long enough for the ETF bid to prove insufficient to defend the $1.00 psychological level. Selling through loss realization continues faster than profit taking, network costs remain low and the gap between institutional demand and organic demand in the chain continues to widen.
If $1.00 fails, $0.90 becomes the next zone where accumulation would be tested, roughly 19% below current prices and close to the cost basis of long-term holders who have built positions over the 2024-2025 cycle.
Polymarket’s June crowd sees the bear case as the most likely outcome, assigning a 47% chance of XRP losing $1.00 before the end of the month.
| Scenario | What needs to be done | Key level | Confirmation signal | Market meaning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case: ETF bid absorbs offer | The inflow of ETFs continues, the chances of CLARITY improve and the pressure for loss realization decreases. | Above $1.00 | The realized profit/loss ratio increases from 0.38, fees stabilize and ETF inflows remain positive. | XRP forms a floor before testing $0.90. |
| Base case: weak range | Demand for ETFs persists, but organic network activity remains under pressure. | $1.00–$1.11 | Price fails to regain higher levels, but $1.00 holds. | Demand for ETFs is offsetting the selling, but not causing a rally. |
| Bear Case: $1.00 breaks | Capitulation rates persist and ETF inflows are absorbed by spot selling. | $0.90 | XRP loses $1.00, costs remain near record lows, and realized losses continue to dominate. | $0.90 will be the next test of accumulation. |
| Stress case: ETF bid is reversed | ETF Outflows, Broader Crypto Weakness, or CLARITY Failures During Capitulation. | Less than $0.90 | Demand for ETFs turns negative and large currency inflows increase. | XRP shifts from reset risk to structural defect risk. |
The influx of ETFs shows that regulated buyers exist and have piled in at lower and lower prices. Glassnode data shows that spot holders are capitulating and that organic network demand has shrunk sharply.
Both conditions can coexist until one overwhelms the other, and at a 90-day realized profit-loss ratio of 0.38, the capitulation calculation must run even further.