TL; DR
- Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick reportedly says Bitcoin’s $59,000 area marked the bottom of the cycle.
- The note cites the SpaceX IPO-related capital rotation and easing of oil price pressures as key catalysts.
- Kendrick reportedly maintains a year-end Bitcoin target of $100,000 and an Ethereum target of $4,000.
Standard Chartered calls Bitcoin’s low of $59,000 the bottom of the cycle
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick has reportedly called Bitcoin’s recent $59,000 area the bottom of the cycle, arguing that the last recession is over and crypto has entered a new recovery phase.
The June 12 research note describes the low of nearly $59,375 as a 53% retracement from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 set on October 6, 2025. Kendrick’s quoted line: “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring.” — sets the tone of the conversation.
The bank’s end targets remain bullish, with Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $4,000. Kendrick also expects ETH to outperform BTC as the recovery develops.
Why SpaceX and Oil Matter to the Bitcoin Call
The argument is not based solely on the pricing structure. Kendrick reportedly ties the bottom call to two catalysts: the completion of SpaceX’s initial public offering and progress on a US-Iran peace deal that could cap oil prices.
The SpaceX angle is unusual but important. The research note states that more than $5.72 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions since mid-May reflected investors liquidating cryptocurrency exposure by freeing up capital for SpaceX’s IPO. Now that the IPO is complete, that particular loss may disappear.
The oil angle is macro-driven. Lower Brent and WTI crude oil prices, reportedly around $87 and $85 per barrel, could reduce inflationary pressures, lower government bond yields and improve the liquidity environment for risk assets, including crypto.
The confirmation checklist
Kendrick looks for three confirmation signals: a return to net positive inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs, renewed corporate bond purchases and falling oil prices. That gives the call a useful framework rather than a simple bullish headline.
The risk is that all three inputs can change quickly. ETF flows may remain negative if sentiment remains weak, corporate bond purchases may disappoint and geopolitics surrounding Iran remains volatile. A later shift in policy headlines or oil prices could weaken the bottom line.
The key point is that Standard Chartered treats $59,000 as a macro and flow-based bottom, and not just a chart level. That makes the next round of ETF data and oil price movements especially important for traders watching the call.
This report is based on primary source material and supporting market data. View the Standard Chartered research portal.
The call is also important because it gives traders a clean level to test. If Bitcoin stays above the $59,000 area and ETF flows stabilize, the bottom line gains credibility. If the market loses that zone again, the argument that the cycle low has already been set becomes more difficult to defend.
The next signal will probably come from flows and not slogans. A recovery in demand for spot ETFs, combined with calmer oil markets and renewed corporate bond buying, would support Kendrick’s view that the selling pressure was temporary rather than structural.