Bitcoin traders have started rebuilding upside expectations after last week’s sharp sell-off. Predictive market data shows a recovery in confidence, even as spot price action and derivative positioning remain cautious.
On Polymarket, traders are currently pricing a 61% chance of Bitcoin reaching $75.000 in February, about 8 percentage points higher than recent lows.
The shift follows a period of increased volatility during which Bitcoin briefly entered the crisis high $60,000 range before stabilizing nearby $70,000.
Prediction markets point to a return to confidence
The movement higher Polymarkt The odds reflect a reassessment of upside risk after the sell-off rather than a decisive change in trend.
While a 61% probability indicates that the outcome is favorable, it also means that a significant portion of traders – almost 40% – are still not convinced that Bitcoin will solve the problems. $75,000 level within the month.
Source: Polymarkt
Trading activity on the contract was active, with a volume of tens of millions of dollars. It suggests that the odds respond quickly to price movements rather than floating on limited liquidity.
Bitcoin’s spot price is stabilizing, the trend remains vulnerable
Bitcoin’s spot price has recovered modestly from recent lows and is hanging around $70,000–71,000but the broader structure remains weak.
The price is still trading below the major moving averages, and the longer-term trend continues to decline after the January collapse.
Source: TradingView
Volume spiked during the sell-off and declined during the recovery, a pattern typically associated with liquidation-induced moves rather than renewed accumulation. While some dip buying has emerged near the lows, there is limited evidence of continued follow-through thus far.
The derivatives positioning remains defensive
Derivatives data adds another layer of caution. According to Mint glassthe Bitcoin long/short ratio has remained to the short side, with aggressive sell orders dominating taker volume during and after the decline.
It is striking that there has been no sustained increase in long positions, in addition to the recovery in spot prices.
Source: Coinglass
This suggests that while expectations have improved, traders have been reluctant to reintroduce leverage, preferring to wait for clearer confirmation of price action.
Expectations are improving faster than Bitcoin’s positioning
The data points to a market that has absorbed a volatility shock but has not yet returned to a risk phase.
Forecast markets signal renewed optimism around February’s uptrend, but spot trends and derivatives positioning indicate continued caution.
For now, Bitcoin is in a stabilization phase, with sentiment recovering faster than conviction in the leveraged markets.
Final thoughts
- Polymarket odds show confidence is rebounding after Bitcoin’s sell-off, but expectations remain far from unanimous.
- Spot and derivatives data point to stabilization rather than a confirmed return to upward momentum.