Bitcoins [BTC] Recovery efforts have not been entirely successful recently. In the last 8 days, Bitcoin has tested the local resistance at $94k twice.
Both times it failed to break through. As things stand now, the higher time frame trend remains bearish for the world’s largest cryptocurrency, despite rising $84,000 in the past three weeks.
Source: Darkfost on X
In one message on Xanalyst Donkerfost explained that the lack of incoming liquidity could be the biggest problem holding BTC back. Stablecoin inflows to exchanges have fallen by 50% since August. It meant there was a lack of consistent demand for Bitcoin to drive prices up.
Other on-chain figures showed that short-term bonds have suffered and may not be in a position to drive a market recovery.
Short-term BTC holders are still in the real pain zone
A message on CryptoQuant Insights explained how the cohort of short-term holders may experience the deepest loss regime of 2025. They have suffered losses, suggesting that every Bitcoin price increase presented an opportunity to sell.
Underwater holders willing to sell the bounce, combined with declining demand, could be tough obstacles for the bulls.
The 24-hour sum of STH shares sent to exchanges is another way to track trends. During an uptrend, losses from STH will be minimal. During a downtrend, investments tend to lose in larger numbers.
Last month, the lack of an upward trend shift was accompanied by strong profit taking. Due to the price increase in mid-October, fewer BTC were sent to the exchanges at a profit – a sign that there was confidence in further gains.
Since November 27, STH’s profit-taking spikes have underlined the statement made earlier. Market sentiment is scary and any price rise is for selling.
There can be an argument that the current market phase is stabilization, and not outright bearish. The developments in this cycle therefore mean that a full winter is unlikely.
Final thoughts
- Stablecoins, the lifeblood of crypto markets, saw reduced inflows to exchanges due to a drop in demand.
- Statistics showed that the behavior of short-term holders has shifted to a sell-the-bounce mentality.