Key Takeaways
Why is Bitcoin under pressure?
Bitcoin’s illiquid supply fell by about 62,000 BTC in October as long-held coins entered circulation.
What could support BTC’s price in the short term?
The 30-day whale inflow/outflow showed a net accumulation of 16,300 BTC, indicating whales are quietly absorbing supply despite weaker demand elsewhere.
Bitcoin [BTC] continued to hover around the $111,000 level. Although the price closed above this level for the third time in a row, selling pressure has limited upward momentum.
Market data showed that higher circulating supply and weaker demand continued to weigh on sentiment and price strength in the near term.
An illiquid supply weakens Bitcoin’s staying power
There has been a sharp decline in the amount of illiquid supply of Bitcoin circulating in the market. Illiquid Bitcoin refers to coins that have remained immobile in long-term, inactive private wallets.
Since mid-October, this decline has become even more pronounced, coinciding with a decline in the broader crypto market cap to around $3.45 trillion.
In fact, the statistic dropped to 14.303 million BTC on October 23, compared to 14.38 million earlier in October.
During this period, approximately 62,000 BTC – worth an estimated $6.8 billion – was added back to the market.
Source: Glassnode
Historically, such inflows have repeatedly led to price declines. For example, in January 2024, an increase in illiquid supply by 400,000 BTC caused a similar weakening effect on Bitcoin’s price momentum.
Mid-sized portfolios drive selling pressure
The sharp increase in liquidity from the previously illiquid supply was just one of many factors influencing Bitcoin’s bullish structure.
Data from Glassnode showed that addresses holding between 0.1 and 100 BTC – valued at around $10,000 to $7 million – were putting significant selling pressure on the market.
This selling behavior has been a consistent trend among this group of investors for about a year.
Source: Glassnode
Buying momentum also fell. The supply of new buyers shrank towards ~213,000 BTC, indicating lighter new participation.
Additionally, momentum buyers – who typically drive short-term rallies – exited the market, chart details show.
This suggested that as buyers pulled back, sellers continued to apply pressure, contributing to the broader stagnation in market activity.
Can whales hold the line?
Despite the market becoming thinner, Bitcoin whale wallets have continued to accumulate assets. This accumulation trend has continued even during the October market decline.
Over the past thirty days, total whale holdings have increased significantly, signaling a degree of confidence among the major keepers. However, their overall position in the market remains relatively small: approximately 16,300 BTC in total.
Source: Glassnode
Compared to the large volume of Bitcoin returning to circulation from illiquid wallets, alongside continued selling pressure from investors holding between 0.1 and 100 BTC, it appears that downward pressure could remain dominant in the short term.