- The momentum ratio of Bitcoin outlined three potential scenarios for the next leg of BTC.
- Given that a correction has already occurred, a deeper withdrawal is less likely.
Bitcoin [BTC] Started with May with Bullish Momentum, closing to $ 97,406.
This outbreak above a critical resistance level reinforces the bull shop, especially in view of the earlier inability of BTC to keep this threshold above this threshold since the end of February.
However, the relocation also introduces bearish implications. Bitcoin’s price is now above the Short -term holder (STH) realized the price.
On April 22, this shift 155-day old BTC pushed from an underwater position to a non-realized profit statement.
The STH realized price, now at $ 93.342, represents the average cost basis on the chain for these holders, which sets up a considerable support floor for Bitcoin.
So, although a new of all time appears at a striking distance, expecting a smooth, continuous climb would still be premature.
Three scenarios that can form the next Bitcoin rally
Building on the momentum ratio of Bitcoin, the renowned crypto analyst Axel Adler Marked three important scenarios For the next BTC movement after breaking the critical $ 97k overhead supply barrier.
At the time of the press, the momentum of BTC is on the chain in the “Start” rally zone, with the momentum ratio at around 0.8 (80%).
This means that the market is positioned for potential advantage, but the direction will depend on how the relationship will behave in the coming weeks.
Source: Cryptuquant
If the momentum ratio breaks over 1.0 and retains that level, important statistics such as NUPL and MVRV would indicate a new upward boost, making Bitcoin’s price possibly push to the range of $ 150k – $ 175k.
Conversely, if the momentum ratio drops to 0.75 or lower, STHS would start to cash in, which leads to a potential correction to the range of $ 70k – $ 85k.
In the third scenario, if the ratio of 0.8-1.0 applies, BTC will probably remain in a wide trading range between $ 90k and $ 110k.
In this scenario, market participants would hold their positions, but a considerable new exposure or purchasing pressure would not come true.
BTC’s most likely next movement
In the Bullish scenario, as the momentum ratio of Bitcoin over 1.0 climbs and maintains, we could see a meeting to the range of $ 150k -$ 175k, somewhat previous macro -cycli following the previous macro cycles.
In 2017, Bitcoin rose nearly 20x, while in 2021 it tripled after breaking earlier highlights – both cycles marked by NUPL and MVRV ratios that introduce euphoric zones.
At the time of the press, the MVRV was 2.16 – well below the 3.9 threshold that was seen historically in the vicinity of market picks. That is why there is still headroom before you reach overvaluation.
This means that the current market is not yet in a euphoric phase.
Source: Glassnode
Similarly, NUPL maintained 0.54, which indicates optimism at an early stage. If Nupl pushes to the reach of 0.74, this would be in accordance with the Peaks Peaks in the past, suggesting the space for further upside down.
Source: Glassnode
However, if the persistent purchasing pressure does not arise, a basic scenario of consolidation between $ 90k $ 110k becomes more likely, especially with resistance-driven corrections.
That said, given a correction has already been taken recently, the bullish and consolidation scenarios have more weight than a deeper withdrawal.
Keep an eye on these indicators because they contain the key to the next step of Bitcoin.