XRP is slowly entering one of the main structural phases in its history. Price action was mostly bearish and sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency The market has been cautious, but data about the chain tells a completely different story.
Data from Glassnode shows XRP balances on centralized exchanges falling to around 1.5 billion XRP, the lowest in more than a year. This trend is unfolding alongside the accumulation of newly launched XRP ETFs, create circumstances that would allow that to happen change in altcoin price dynamics towards 2026.
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XRP exchange balances fall to multi-year lows
Data from Glassnode’s XRP balance on exchanges indicates a clear and continued downward trend in balances on crypto exchanges through 2025. Earlier this year, approximately 4 billion XRP was sitting on centralized platforms.
Since then, balances have fallen steadily, with a particularly sharp decline seen in the fourth quarter of the year. As it stands, XRP holdings on the exchange have compressed to the 1.5 billion mark, one of the lowest levels recorded in recent years.
This decline has occurred despite the current downward trend in XRP’s price action, meaning some holders are increasingly choosing to place tokens in longer-term escrow, while some others are selling their holdings. This trend is important for bullish momentumbecause falling exchange rate balances reduce short-term selling pressure and make cryptocurrencies more sensitive to incoming demand.
At the center of this supply contraction are the US-based Spot XRP ETFs have emerged as a powerful new source of demand. Market estimates indicate that approximately 750 million XRP has been absorbed by the six Spot ETF products since its initial launch in November.
As ETFs continue to take XRP off exchanges, the amount of liquid supply available to the spot market continues to shrink. These dynamics don’t force an immediate price response, but they do change the balance between supply and demand, and they could start to see its effects the cryptocurrency in 2026.
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Weekly chart points to exhaustion while XRP sits at support
While on-chain data points to tighter supply, technical conditions are starting to reflect a similar theme. Crypto Analyst Steph Is Crypto recently pointed out that XRP is now sitting at a key horizontal support zone on the weekly time frame.
The chart shows that XRP’s price action is now falling to the $1.90 to $2.00 range, following an extended decline from the mid-2025 highs near $3.50, bringing XRP back to a level that served as a starting point earlier in the cycle.
Furthermore, the weekly stochastic RSI is now in extreme oversold territory and this means that the selling pressure has already done much of its work.
Steph’s analysis shows that turning points often occur when downward momentum is exhausted, and it is little energy left for sellers to push the price down further. Based on this, traders can expect XRP to transition to bullish momentum in early 2026.
Featured image of Gemini, chart from TradingView