XRP is trading in one of the key technical zones of the year, with a new two-week chart analysis claiming the larger Elliott Wave structure has not broken down.
The setup, which was shared by crypto analyst Dark Defender, puts XRP almost at the end of one narrowing the resistance and support peak, where the next big move could decide whether the cryptocurrency is still stuck below the short-term resistance or will beg for a stronger upward rally towards defined resistance levels.
XRP’s Elliott Wave Count continues to indicate greater bullish structure
From the dark defender analysis is built around it the view that XRP’s primary Elliott Wave structure is still intact on the two-week candlestick time chart. The chart shows XRP moving through a larger series of five waves, with the current price action around the end of wave 4.
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According to Elliott Wave theory, Wave 4 is the second corrective phase in a five-wave impulse that comes before the final extension of Wave 5, provided the entire impulse structure is not invalidated by a disturbance.
As shown in the chart below, XRP is sandwiched between a falling orange resistance line and a rising blue support line. The XRP price hit the blue support line in March and has since created a number of bullish 2-week candlesticks. The current candlestick once again touched the descending orange resistance line, and this shows that XRP is running out of space to further consolidate.
The analyst highlighted support between $1.36 and $1.31. That range is important because XRP already trading around $1.36, meaning the price action tests the bottom end of the setup in real time.
A clean hold above this zone would keep the number of bullish waves alive while losing the area would discredit the possibility that the current structure is still preparing for a wave 5 move.
Fibonacci Price Levels to $8
The main short-term battle is around the orange resistance line. Dark Defender said XRP will break that orange resistance and deliver a strong, strong run through the end of May. Since its rejection at $3.65 in July 2025, XRP has formed lower highs below that descending trendline, which now sits around $1.47.
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The projected path on the chart shows XRP breaking above $1.47 and then expanding into the higher Fibonacci extensions. The first notable extension is a 161.80% extension at $1.8818. The 361.80% extension, a Fibonacci level associated with extended Wave 3 and Wave 5 completions in strong impulsive structures, amounts to $3.5632. However, it is the 644.40% expansion that anchors the full bullish forecast at $8.7822, which is referred to as the Wave 5 target.
Featured image from Sketchfab, chart from Tradingview.com