Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated over the past month, but BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is the latest crypto expert to make a bullish prediction for the asset. According to the former CEO of cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, Bitcoin could reach $70,000, and the only reason the asset isn’t at this price yet is because investors are fixated on the Fed’s nominal interest rate.
Bitcoin could still rise 150%
Several predictions have been made regarding Bitcoin, some of them more bullish than others. As for Hayes, he made his case regarding BTC in his Crypto Trader Digest blog post in light of various actions by the US Federal Reserve to curb inflation.
Since March 2022, the Fed has raised rates multiple times, causing many investors like Hayes to reconsider their predictions about Bitcoin’s prospects.
What happens if the Fed keeps raising rates? Can the $BTC bull market gaining momentum? “Are we there yet?” is an essay that explores that question.https://t.co/OGkVQreIBg pic.twitter.com/FTYR3HBq1a
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) September 11, 2023
In the blog post, Hayes shared several metrics related to U.S. Treasury yields and GDP growth. Hayes began adjusting his predictions by challenging the widely held belief that BTC’s value is negatively correlated with rising interest rates.
New forecasts show that government spending figures and current GDP growth have pushed the actual government bond yield from 5% government bonds closer to 4%, making risky investments like BTC and equities still attractive.
Hayes believes the Fed will be able to raise rates, and investors’ search for positive real yields in response has translated into a bullish market for Bitcoin, which started in March 2023.
Although Bitcoin is up almost 29% since then, most of the market has yet to catch on as everyone focuses on the Fed’s nominal interest rate and not real interest rates.
“The reason we’re not at $70,000 is because everyone is focused on the Fed’s nominal interest rate, not the real interest rate, compared to the eye-wateringly high US nominal GDP growth.”
BTC price trending above $26,300 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
BTC price to $70,000?
Speaking at the Korea Blockchain Week, Hayes said mentioned that the next Bitcoin bull market began on March 10, the day the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) acquired Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).
Hayes has made similar predictions regarding Bitcoin. In March 2020, the expert made a prediction that Bitcoin could rise of $8,000 and reaching $20,000 by the end of the year. The price of BTC would later close the year 2020 at around $27,000.
The co-founder of BitMEX has previously expressed his discomfort on Spot Bitcoin ETF, from investment firms like BlackRock, calling them “crypto gatekeepers” whose sole purpose is to balance their deposit base. However, Hayes believes that a market catch-up would see Bitcoin survive a further Fed rate hike to skyrocket more than 150% from current levels in early 2024.
At the time of writing it is Bitcoin trades at $26,320 and is up 2.27% in seven days.
Featured image by Breet, chart from Tradingview.com