- The possible rise in the US CPI and bank withdrawals could cause the price of Bitcoin to rise.
- BTC’s short-term projection remains bearish at the time of writing.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a Substack newsletter, explaining why Bitcoin [BTC] will not tend to $20,000 prior to the next bull run. In a article titled “Patience Is Beautiful”, Hayes pointed to several factors as reasons for his projection.
Some of the points he raised included the consumer price index (CPI) and the crises in the US banking sector. For context, the consumer price index is an important economic measure that measures the overall change in consumer prices based on the cost of goods and services.
A high CPI is Bitcoin’s profit
In terms of CPI, the exchange’s current Chief Information Officer (CIO) noted that inflation would reach a local low in the country and accelerate again later in the year. He wrote,
“Due to the statistical phenomenon known as the base effect, the high month-on-month (MoM) inflation rates of 2022 will fall away to be replaced by lower MoM inflation rates of the summer of 2023.”
Hayes also agreed with Bianco Research’s CPI projection of more than 5% in December 2023. In particular, a higher CPI indicates higher inflation.
Source: Bianco Research
Prior to his latest release, the exchange’s former CEO had said that the debt profile from the US Treasury would stimulate more demand for Bitcoin.
Outflow from the banks
As for the crises in the banking system, Hayes believed investors would most likely return to the action of 2020 and 2021.
During that period, a large percentage of investors moved their money from the traditional sector to the money market and other markets that offered it better yields.
Interestingly enough, it seemed investors were already taking action, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Q1 report.
The bureau noted that total deposits fell for the fourth consecutive quarter, as stated,
“Total deposits fell $472.1 billion (2.5 percent) between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. The quarterly decline is the largest drop reported in the QBP since data collection began in 1984. This was the fourth consecutive quarter that the industry had lower levels of total deposits.”
Bears in the price action
Meanwhile, BTC has been going through a light one delay, as the price is up 1.84% in the past seven days. But in terms of volatility, the Bollinger Bands (BB) showed that the king coin has contracted.
Read Bitcoins [BTC] Price prediction 2023-2024
Moreover, the technical outlook revealed that BTC had moved out of overbought territory as the price no longer touched the upper band.
However, the upswing may not last due to the condition of the exponential moving average (EMA). At the time of writing, the 20 EMA (cyan) had passed the 50 (EMA) yellow. Therefore, the press time trend might have turned bearish.
Source: TradingView