The XRP price could be trading in a bearish mood, but the behind-the-scenes offering at the fair points to it a trend that could be important price direction in the coming months. A recent report from 21Shares shows that foreign exchange reserves have fallen to a seven-year low of 1.7 billion XRP. The report shows how liquidity, demand for ETFs and investor behavior are quietly declining lining up for a possible price revision for XRP in 2026.
Declining supply of XRP exchanges meets demand for ETFs
According to 21Shares, three pillars will shape XRP’s price action in 2026: regulatory clarity, substantial investor demand through spot ETFs, and real-world adoption of XRPL. If noted in a report by At the Swiss-based financial services company, foreign exchange reserves stand at roughly 1.7 billion XRP, the lowest level in more than seven years.
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This number matches with institutional demand for XRP ETFsthat intersects with a community that is increasingly adopting the vision of holding on. This reduction in easily traded supply is a catalyst for non-linear price revisions, if they persist throughout the year. According to 21Shares, this creates a supply shock mechanism that mirrors the GameStop revolution on Reddit.
ETF products in the US attracted over $1.3 billion in their first month, with a record series of consecutive inflows regardless of market conditions and outflows from other crypto ETFs. According to the report, this continued demand indicates a transition from speculative trading to structural capital allocation. This demand is still strong despite the cumulative total net inflows of these ETFs has since fallen to At the time of writing this was $1.18 billion.
The report also looked at the path charted by Bitcoin spot ETFs as analogous, with nearly $38 billion in net inflows helping Bitcoin’s price double from $40,000 to $100,000 in less than a year. Keeping this precedent in mind, XRP’s much smaller market capitalization at the ETF’s launch, about one-eighth that of Bitcoin, means that its inflows will have a proportionately greater impact on price development. According to 21Shares, the capital velocity on XRP could be higher, which is expected to strengthen the reflexive price feedback loop if inflows continue.
XRP ETF assets. Source: 21shares
XRP Price Outlook for 2026
The 21Shares report projected 2026 as a year in which XRP valuation will be impacted by a combination of regulatory access, continued ETF flows, and significant RWA volume on the XRP Ledger. In terms of pricesIt outlines a scenario range for 2026 that focuses on a base case peak of $2.45 (with a 50% probability), a bull case peak of $2.69 (30%), and a bear case peak of $1.60.
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The base case assumes that regulatory stability supports steady ETF inflows and gradual improvement in real utility, while the bull scenario relies on institutional-scale tokenization and tighter liquidity supply, creating a stronger repricing effect. The bear case, on the other hand, involves stagnant adoption and capital rotation away from XRP. Right now, XRP is trading around this bear case, and so are bulls struggling to stay above $1.6.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com