A crypto analyst known as CrypFlow has done just that outlined which he believes will confirm the real start of the next Bitcoin bull run. According to the analyst, the turnaround in a bullish run does not start at the bottom, but only after important technical confirmations appear on the chart. His analysis points to three conditions that must be met before this new cycle can be brought into play.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $71,750, up 4.3% in the past 24 hours. The last trading day is highlighted by bullish momentumwith the Bitcoin price even reaching an intra-day high of $72,379, according to price data from CoinGecko.
Why CrypFlow says the bottom is not the beginning
However, looking at the long-term price action, Bitcoin is still down about 43% from its peak of $126,000 in October 2025. Crypto market participants are divided on whether the soil is already in and the decline has ended and whether there is even more downward price action forward.
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CrypFlow, on the other hand separates the bottom from the start of a bull run. According to the analyst, the bottom is simply the point where the price decline stops, but that does not mean the broader trend has reversed. What matters is confirmation that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like it would in a bear market.
The chart shared by the analyst highlights how the 50-week SMA and the -14 wave trend level have repeatedly acted as dividing lines between bearish and bullish conditions. In 2021, Bitcoin’s cycle top was followed by a collapse below both levels, which preceded the 2022 bear market.
Upon exiting the 2022 bear market, the subsequent recovery did not immediately lead to a new bull run. Instead, the shift to a bullish mood only became apparent after Bitcoin broke the long-term downward trend and regained both indicators.
A similar structure is visible in the current cycle. Bitcoin has rejected its 2025 peak and is trading below a descending trendline, while the price is below the 50-week SMA. Moreover, the wave trend indicator is still below the -14 threshold. As long as these conditions persist, Bitcoin price will still be in a corrective or bearish environment even if there are short-term rallies.
What needs to happen before the Bull Run begins
According to the analyst, three conditions must be met before it heralds the start of a new bull cycle. First, Bitcoin needs to break above the descending trend line from the cycle top. Secondly, it needs to regain the -14 level on the wave trend indicator. Finally, the price must move back above the 50-week SMA.
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These signals worked together in the previous cycle to transition into an extended rally. Until they reappear, any price recovery will be unconfirmed. Please note that the 50 SMA is a lagging indicator, its purpose is not to identify the bottom. It is to confirm that the cycle has been reversed.
Featured image of Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com