Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, shared a ‘policy scorecard’ based on the US presidential candidates’ positions towards the crypto industry.
The map suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election has limited downside risk for the sector and would be more favorable than the current Biden administration. However, former US President and candidate Donald Trump presents the most favorable approach to crypto.
Analysts at Galaxy Research are “optimistic” that actions so far suggest Harris’ term could be friendlier than US President Joe Biden’s.
Major differences in tax and Bitcoin mining policies
The biggest differences between Harris and Trump when it comes to crypto emerge on four of the seven issues: taxes, Bitcoin mining, self-custody and banking regulations.
On taxes, Galaxy analysts described Harris’ campaign as “extremely hostile,” citing her public pledge to roll back Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. In contrast, Trump is expected to bring more clarity to tax policy on digital assets.
Bitcoin mining policies show a similar contrast. While Biden proposed a 30% tax on mining, Harris has been much milder in her campaign rhetoric. The scorecard rates her position as “slightly better” than Biden’s, but still somewhat hostile.
Meanwhile, Trump is seen as a strong supporter of Bitcoin mining due to meeting with miners and receiving donations from them. He has also publicly stated that he considers mining part of “domestic production.”
Harris and Trump also differ greatly in their banking policies. Behind-the-scenes discussions suggest Harris could ease Biden’s “Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” recognizing the need for the crypto industry to have access to banks.
However, Trump is seen as “extremely supportive,” promising to end Operation Chokepoint 2.0 completely and allow national banks to dabble in blockchains. He has also strongly opposed a central bank digital currency (CBDC).
On self-determination, Harris and Trump’s policies are relatively similar. Harris has not made any direct statements on the issue, although some of her campaign advisers have been hostile to it in the past. Trump is “somewhat supportive,” having pledged to protect the right to self-custody at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville.
Galaxy’s analysis is based on public statements and reports from sources close to both campaigns.
Bitcoin is unlikely to be affected, altcoins could soar
Bitcoin (BTC) has been conspicuously absent from most regulatory discussions surrounding the scorecard, suggesting it would remain unaffected regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins next month’s election. However, the outlook for altcoins is more mixed.
A Trump victory could provide the regulatory clarity needed for altcoins to outperform Bitcoin, while a Harris administration could pose risks to these assets. Tokens like Uniswap’s UNI will benefit if Trump implements long-awaited regulatory reforms in the US crypto industry.
While a Trump presidency has “explosive upside potential” for the crypto industry, Galaxy’s head of research sees “limited” downside risk in a Harris win, noting that her positions on crypto generally are better than Biden’s.