A widely followed macro roadmap circulating on Friday, November 7, lays out an explicit set of policy and market triggers that could determine crypto’s trajectory into December – and positioning into 2026. wireposted by macro analyst Alex Krüger, is unequivocal about the immediate restriction: “cautious attitude until [the government shutdown is] resolved.” It is equally explicit about the upside if Washington finds a path forward, calling the shutdown solution “bullish” on risk assets and saying Bitcoin “should expect +5% or more BTC within 48 hours of the deal.”
In other words, the short-term hinge is binary. A prolonged shutdown keeps the risk limited; a deal, on the other hand, opens the door to what the thread characterizes as a rapid relief move. The author’s base case on timing — “expected to be resolved sometime between late next week and Thanksgiving” — extends that window to the second half of November. That framework matters for crypto because the same roadmap argues that the December calendar is packed with policy and flow headwinds that could complicate any rally that starts late this month.
Crypto Outlook for Year End 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee will meet in mid-December. The thread is currently labeling the December 10 FOMC outcome as “hawkish,” explaining that “most Fed officials favor a pause as of now, which is not priced in at this point,” while also acknowledging that “officials may change their stance on interest rates as economic data comes in and the month progresses.” The nuance is important: the policy signal as currently presented is sharper than markets discount, but the signal itself could be revised as the data crystallizes – if it arrives at all.
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This warning leads to a second unusual feature of this year’s end: a potential data vacuum due to the ongoing US government shutdown. “All upcoming economic data releases have been left off the list due to uncertainty over release dates,” the thread notes, citing the shutdown’s impact on statistical agencies. It adds: “There will likely be no official economic data in November, and data will resume in December, with payrolls (jobs) due on December 5 (a critical data point for the FOMC decision).” A prolonged blackout followed by a compressed burst of releases would increase event risk around each individual print, especially non-farm payrolls, and could increase the volatility of risk assets, including crypto.
A separate political appointment could also coincide with the December meeting. The roadmap highlights the “nomination for a new Fed chair,” which is expected to be announced before the next FOMC, to influence the FOMC decision (it could also be shortly thereafter); bullish to very bullish.’ Even if the timing shifts to just after the meeting, the signaling effect around leadership and policy response functions in this context would distort support for risk.
Tax-based flows complicate that picture specifically for crypto assets. The thread characterizes “Tax Loss Selling (Crypto Only)” as “bearish; all of December, mainly the last two weeks,” reasoning that crypto’s relative underperformance versus stocks this year leaves room for pickings that are “of particular importance given the relative performance of stocks and cryptocurrencies.”
The seasonal pressure at the end of the month would be consistent with previous years where crypto saw local shifts from December to January as sales declined and risks reemerged with the calendar reset.
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Another macro wildcard falls outside monetary policy. The author highlights the “Supreme Court decision on tariffs: most likely sometime in December, otherwise January, timing fluid,” and frames the market opportunity as pointing to a ruling “against Trump, which IMO says would be extremely bullish, although some argue such a ruling would be bearish.” The point is less about one-way traffic and more about the breadth of plausible paths: depending on the ruling and how forward-looking positioning in the event, crypto could either extend a policy-led risk measure or face whiplash if the outcome clashes with the consensus.
After the final weeks of 2025, the roadmap outlines a decidedly constructive macro backdrop next year, at least at the start. “2026: very bullish first half of the year, driven by accommodative fiscal and monetary policies.” For crypto, that forward anchor matters because it supports the idea that any tax cuts in December or a hawk-oriented FOMC could be transitory as the policy push eases into 2026.
Tactically, the thread even suggests a short-term trading phrase around the shutdown endgame: “For BTC, I think you can probably sell a shutdown resolution spike around $108k-$109k (~20 DMA), and then enjoy a king break and get back in by the end of the year.”
At the time of writing, the total crypto market was $3.36 trillion.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com