Weiss Crypto says Bitcoin may be approaching one of its strongest buying opportunities in years, with senior analyst Juan M. Villaverde arguing that a coming pullback could be final confirmation that the market’s bearish phase has ended.
In one after at The comments came along with a new video analysis from Villaverde, who said several of his macro, liquidity and cycle models are once again pointing in the same direction: a short-term downtrend, but within a broader constructive setup.
Bitcoin Pullback Seen as Bullish Confirmation
Villaverde said Bitcoin has largely continued to trade in line with macro signals, despite temporary deviations around geopolitical and regulatory events. He pointed to a low in February that his framework has been tracking since last year, followed by a rally that he said was weaker than expected.
“We’ve been looking at this February low since last year. We’ve been talking about a correction in the fourth quarter since the fourth quarter of last year. We expected a sell-off in February,” Villaverde said. He added that he started buying Bitcoin in late January because the market was already close to the expected cycle window.
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However, the rally that followed did not extend as far as he expected. Villaverde said signals from the liquidity and bond markets had suggested Bitcoin could reach $90,000 or $100,000, but the market was being disrupted by geopolitical risks, particularly the escalation around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, this caused a two-week deviation from the macro path rather than a structural break in the model.
“Bitco moves with the macro,” he said, after filtering out that period. He argued that liquidity peaked around the same time as Bitcoin and then began to decline, while signals in the bond market also pointed to a downturn.
Villaverde said he had been watching to see whether the enthusiasm surrounding the Clarity Act, which was headed for a vote in the Senate, could offset bearish short-term signals. “This is the only chance Bitcoin has to ignore the bearish liquidity outlook and the bearish planetary models,” he said. But after that catalyst failed to make a decisive breakthrough, he said the weight of evidence continued to tilt toward the downside.
Analyst Says He Doesn’t Advocate for $50,000 Bitcoin
The central point of the analysis was not that Bitcoin is entering a deeper bear market. Villaverde emphasized that his framework points to a correction within a changed regime, not a collapse.
“I just want to zoom out here and be very clear. I’m not predicting 50,000. I’m not even saying it’s going to go under $70,000. I’m not even sure it’s going to go under $70,000,” he said. “I think if you’re shorting this, this isn’t really what my framework suggests. My framework suggests this is the correction that confirms the bear market is over.”
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That distinction is key to Weiss Crypto’s thesis. Villaverde said the bond market model, which he said looks 13 months ahead, still implies the February low should not be retested. Liquidity, which he says looks about 12 weeks ahead, is also starting to follow that broader path by forming a trough in June and July and turning toward a future rally.
“If these two don’t make new lows, I expect Bitcoin won’t make new lows,” he said.
In terms of downsides, Villaverde said a move towards $60,000 remains possible under his Hurst cycle framework, without invalidating the bullish structure. Still, he described the $65,000 to $66,000 area as more likely because it would maintain a higher low and the 320-day cycle would remain translated to the right, a structure he described as bullish.
Instead of selling or shorting Bitcoin, Villaverde says he approaches the setup through options. Now that Bitcoin is close to $80,000, he says he has sold calls, while a sell-off would see him start selling puts around $70,000, $65,000 or $60,000.
The bigger implication, according to Villaverde, is that Bitcoin may be an unusually shallow bear market structure shaped by institutional demand. “If we see that, that would be the most shallow bear market in crypto history,” he said, adding that it may have ended with a single low that has not been retested.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $72,043.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com