The Bitcoin price is currently trading under enormous bearish pressure, and the downward trend may not be over yet. Bitcoin has now broken below $70,000 and has extended its decline below $65,000. This price action is part of an extended correction phase that began after Bitcoin topped $126,000 in October 2025, and crypto participants have different views when the correction will bottom out.
Amid the uncertainty, the outlook of a crypto analyst known as Sherlock is gaining traction on still significantly lower.
Past declines show a clear pattern in Bitcoin cycles
Sherlock’s analysis focuses on how deep Bitcoin has fallen during previous bear markets and how these falls have changed as the asset matured over the years. According to on the data he highlightedIn the 2011 cycle, Bitcoin experienced a decline of approximately 93% from peak to trough. This is the highest correction for the Bitcoin price to date. That figure dropped to about 86% in 2015, then to 84% in 2018, and further to about 77% during the 2022 bear market.
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The consistent conclusion from these cycles is that each successive downturn has been smaller than the previous one. This is not surprising, as Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have grown in size, liquidity, and participation over time.
Using this trend as a guide, the next major bottom correction should continue this progression. The projection is that the correction should fall from 77% in the 2022 bear market to 70% in the current price action. If the drawdown drops to around 70% in the current cycle, measured from an all-time high of $126,000then the bottom would land around $38,000.
Rejecting higher bottom targets such as $69,000 and $50,000
Sherlock’s projection received a lot of backlash and commentary on X, with some market participants noting that reflexivity and greater institutional involvement should reduce downside risk this time around. One notable response suggested that when comparing previous bottom-up moves with top-down declines, Bitcoin’s next decline should be closer to 55% or 60%, rather than 70%.
Sherlock pushed back on that position by noting that reflexivity can amplify downturns just as easily as it can cause rallies. “Good luck buying your bottom at $69,000, $60,000 and $50,000,” he said.
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For now, Bitcoin is being taken between aggressive sell-offs and growing concerns that the larger corrective phase has not been completed. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $64,850, having recovered from an intraday low of $60,255, according to data from CoinGecko.
The recent price action means Bitcoin is back in active trading the lowest level since October 2024. If Bitcoin were to revisit the $38,000 area, it would mark a return to the price level last seen during the early stages of the bull market. The last time Bitcoin traded around $38,000 was in October 2023.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com