Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have endured weeks of prolonged turmoil, with macro pressures driving prices into a sideways spiral. The total crypto market cap at the time of writing was approximately $2.4 trillion.
Increased war tensions across West Asia have added an additional layer of uncertainty, putting the market in an increasingly precarious position.
Still, speaking to Coin Headlines, eToro market analyst Josh Gilbert argued that the market could still weather the storm.
Oil shock, market chaos
Gilbert described the current environment as a headline-driven market where oil prices have become the central source of uncertainty, pushing investors to reduce their crypto holdings.
Key pressure points, including the Strait of Hormuz and energy infrastructure across the region, have been directly affected.
The main headline here is obviously oil and oil prices, and that then infects everything, right down to interest rates and inflation,” he said.
In response, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates for the second time in a row. The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on March 25, keeping sentiment calm for now, but Gilbert warned this might not last.
If we see oil-driven inflation forcing the Fed to keep rates high for longer, or worse, and eventually even raise them again, I think we will see Bitcoin and crypto come under pressure.
Crypto market and the silent state of Bitcoin
Despite the headwinds, Bitcoin remains [BTC] There has been no significant decline since the escalation of the conflict.
Much of the earlier selling pressure came from the liquidation cascade following the October 10, 2025 market event crash, and Bitcoin has since maintained a range of around $65,000 to $76,000.
Gilbert added
I actually think the downside risk was much greater than what we actually saw. Since the beginning of this conflict, Bitcoin has outperformed gold, it has outperformed the S&P 500, the NASDAQ.
He attributed the market’s maturation to its resilience.
It was a completely different period then. We had no spot ETFs, no corporate bonds buying billion-dollar positions, no sovereign wealth funds putting capital to work. While today we have all three of these.
ETF inflows are recovering after heavy outflows in February reinforced his view. “It tells us that the institutional demand is still there.”
What the numbers tell us
Bitcoin’s Spot activity provides a clear picture of the broader market, and at the moment it is showing a holding pattern.
Spot holders are the long-term basis of Bitcoin and do not use leverage. Their activities have remained quiet. Over the past 60 days, spot net inflows have remained low compared to stronger market phases.
The total accumulation during this period is only $4.99 billion. Without stronger buying, Bitcoin may remain within range. The next step depends on how the key factors develop.
Final summary
- The impact of the war in West Asia on inflation could be the main factor deterring crypto’s next rally, despite the market having held up quite well so far.
- $4.99 billion in Bitcoin accumulation indicates tepid demand, insufficient to drive a sustained market rally.