XRP has a technically decisive leveland the next wave of price action is expected to reveal whether the market is gearing up for a recovery or preparing for another structural collapse. Recent moves confirm that a key support has done its job, but the upward path brings strict conditions that will determine whether this will be the case bouncing is sustainable or just a pause before a deeper setback.
XRP Bounce is real, but it is still a test move
Yesterday, the well-known crypto analyst CasiTrades went to X, pointing found that XRP’s decline over the weekend stopped right at the macro-0.5 retracement near $2.03, a level that now acts as confirmed structural support. The response to this zone was immediate, confirming it as active demand rather than a coincidental price alignment. Momentum indicators too printed bullish divergence at this low point, reinforcing the view that downward pressure is easing in the short term.
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From a wave structure perspective, CasiTrades interprets this move as the early phase of a subwave 2 bounce. The accompanying chart suggests that the price could turn higher towards the $2.24-$2.26 range, an area defined by overlapping Fibonacci retracements and prior resistance. Reaching this zone would complete the expected corrective move, but CasiTrades emphasizes that such a rally would still fall within a broader pullback, rather than confirming a bullish continuation.
This distinction is critical because corrective rallies often appear constructive before they fail. If XRP’s advance remains overlapping and lacks momentum, this would support the case for a rejection at resistance continuation of the broader correction cycle.
The catch that determines the bigger picture
The key level that changes everything, according to CasiTrades, is $2.41. A decisive break above this level, followed by a successful retest as support would completely negate the downside scenario. Such a move would be a signal that the rebound is no longer corrective and that XRP is moving into a stronger impulsive phase.
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However, failure at $2.41including a potential double top, would still align with a second wave correction structure. In that case, XRP would likely enter a sub-wave 3 decline. While smaller subwaves may not unfold perfectly, CasiTrades emphasizes that the larger scale objective remains unchanged macro support nearby $1.65 as the dominant downside target.
Risk management remains central to this setup. CasiTrades identifies $2.03 as the invalidation point for the bounce thesis, making it the logical level for protective stops. As long as this support holds, the market will be in observation mode.
Ultimately, the next XRP wave points towards the next price, but only if traders respect the condition attached to it. If CasiTrades frames itthe internal structure of the move will reveal whether this is a temporary reset or the start of something materially stronger.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com