Binance’s miner reserves fell from 41,987 to 41,915 in May, a small but telling sign that the selling pressure from miners has not yet completely stopped. Crypto analysts said that because Binance Pool controls a large portion of the global hash rate, its behavior tends to reflect how Bitcoin miners are feeling before the broader market catches on.
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The Miner Position Index remains below historical panic selling levels, and the Puell Multiple – a measure of miners’ earnings relative to long-term averages – is still below one. Analysts described current miner behavior as a “hold phase,” a pattern that has appeared near cycle bottoms before.
Long-term holders take over the supply side
More than 70% of all circulating Bitcoin is now owned by investors who have held it for at least a year. That figure rose above 15 million BTC for the first time since October 2025, according to data from CryptoQuant.
🚨 $BTC Long-term holders just sent the signal that preceded every major expansion phase since 2012.#Bitcoin The 1Y+ Long Term Holder metric has now fallen back into the historic “oversold” accumulation zone, a region that previously appeared before the boom… pic.twitter.com/9ZHwKFJRm9
— CryptoZeno (@CrypZeno) May 20, 2026
Analyst CryptoZeno said the one-year-plus holding metric has returned to a zone that came right before big price increases in previous cycles. Based on reports citing CryptoZeno’s analysissimilar figures appeared ahead of upward moves in 2013, 2016, 2019 and late 2022. When these holders buy instead of sell, the available supply tightens – and historically that hasn’t been a good time to bet on lower prices.
A major technical signal turns bullish
The weekly Relative Strength Index for Bitcoin retested the 50 level this week, prompting a bullish reading from crypto analyst Sykodelic. That retest came 105 days after Bitcoin’s weekly RSI entered oversold territory – just the fourth time this has ever happened.
Sykodelic noted that three of these four cases led to long-term price increases. The only exception was 2022, when the FTX collapse dragged the market to new lows after an initial recovery attempt, and the RSI never managed to get back to the 50 level during that move. This time it did.
The chance of new lows has become extremely small.
It has now been 105 days since the cycle low where the 1W RSI was oversold…
Only for the 4th time ever.
The only time Bitcoin made new lows after 105 days from the bottom was in the last cycle.
However, the RSI had… pic.twitter.com/ej7vReV8H6
— Sykodelic 🔪 (@Sykodelic_) May 20, 2026
Chances of a drop below $60,000, called ‘extremely slim’
Taken together, analysts say the data points to a new breakdown. The combination of long-term bonds piling near historic lows, a technical indicator turning positive for the first time since February, and miner behavior consistent with previous bottoms has led analysts to broadly settle on one view.
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The chance that Bitcoin will fall below $60,000 again has increased, according to Sykodelic extremely slim.
Whether that confidence holds will depend on whether the market can avoid the kind of external shock – such as a major exchange rate bust – that broke the pattern in 2022.
Featured image of Yellow, chart from TradingView