A new price model from Diana, a crypto analyst at The model is reportedly based on supply-absorption mathematics, and shows how ETF-driven demand could change XRP market prices once XRP ETFs go live.
New XRP ETF inflow model points a direct route to $24
Diana is new issued “XRP ETF Launch Impact Model” paints a clear, data-driven picture of how ETF inflows alone could reprice XRP. Her framework tests multiple launch scenarios with five to 20 ETFs, each priced from $10 million to $45 million. Depending on scale, total inflows range from $50 million to $900 million, absorbing between 0.08% and 1.50% of XRP’s estimated liquid supply of 60 billion units.
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According to Diana’s projections, this level of Liquidity absorption drives XRP in a thirty-day range from $3.00 to $15.00, with the sixty-day window extending from $3.80 to $24.00. The top end of the model – where XRP approaches $24 – emerges when twenty ETFs are launched with maximum seed capital and almost a billion dollars in early inflows. Diana argues that as issuers acquire XRP to build underlying exposure, the available float becomes smaller, and the resulting supply crisis forces a natural repricing cycle.
However, XRP’s real-time price action tells a different story. Despite the successful debut of the Canary XRP ETF, XRP has not responded positively. The latest market data shows the asset trading at around $2.14, down 13.5% on the week. Still, Diana maintains that early price weakness is typical during ETF rollout phases and believes that expected inflow dynamics still position XRP for a sharp upward revaluation once it becomes institutionally developed. allocations are starting to take shape.
The Market Structure Is Delaying XRP’s Next Big Rally
In a separate post, Diana outlined the market pattern, she believes, is the driving force behind XRP’s recent price behavior. According to her, traders typically buy before an ETF’s launch to stimulate expected demand, creating a pre-launch rally that is driven by speculation rather than institutional activity. Once the ETF goes livethose early buyers take profits, creating the sharp dip on launch day that often surprises retail investors.
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Diana noted that institutional inflows never arrive on day one. Asset managers go through compliance checks, committee approvals and allocation cycles, meaning real capital hits the market weeks later. She pointed to Bitcoin’s ETF rollout in January 2024 as the clearest example, where the asset fell at launch but later rose to new highs as regulated inflows matured.
She states that XRP is now showing the same early stage pattern: a weak market following the Launch of the Canary ETFprofit taking and a temporary cooling-off phase. When these delayed inflows eventually start to accumulate, Diana claims it will strengthen the economy upward price dynamics for XRP’s next big climb.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com