Data shared by Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, showed that Bitcoin now has four clear distribution alerts – a first in its history.
Source: Alpharactal
The Reserve Risk indicator, which tracks the movements of older, dormant coins, has repeatedly shown sell signals since 2024. This means that early holders are steadily putting BTC back into circulation.
Source: Alpharactal
Much of this supply appears to be flowing into exchanges, ETFs and institutional instruments, right at the height of market attention. So far, similar patterns have emerged late in previous cycles, often a change from a rapid upward movement to a slower, more vulnerable time.
Liquidity lagging behind?
As old coins come back into circulation, the liquidity flow between exchanges is the same lose strength.
The Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) is trending downward and falling below the 90-day moving average, a level that has often meant slower or corrective phases in previous cycles.
There are fewer positive flows flowing through the stock markets to support the rally.
Source: CryptoQuant
What’s interesting is that Bitcoin’s price is still near its cycle high even as this support fades. This kind of mismatch has so far led to consolidation rather than sell-off.
Unless exchange flows recover, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain its gains in the short term.
It also appears on the price chart
Bitcoin was trading near $90,000 at the time of writing, but remained below the major short- and long-term moving averages – a loss of trend strength.
The RSI did not show strong buying or selling pressure. At the same time, the volume is leveling off on balance, resulting in a lack of new demand on the market.
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin may be entering a consolidation phase.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s rally is losing structural support.
- With BTC close to $90,000 but flows thinning, the market may consolidate.