Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin’s Rally Over in 2025?
Bitcoin has lost momentum midway through the fourth quarter, wiping out most quarterly gains in November and leaving nearly 99% of short-term holdings underwater.
What is the short-term risk for Bitcoin?
With 592,000 BTC at risk and bid support weakening, fear dominates sentiment, paving the way for a deeper correction in the fourth quarter.
Has Bitcoin [BTC] 2025 Rally fallen apart?
Halfway through the fourth quarter, BTC has its weakest fourth quarter since 2018, with a net loss of 15.13%. Furthermore, 74% of that decline occurred in November, making it the second-worst month of 2025 after February.
So in terms of returns, BTC has clearly lost momentum. November has effectively wiped out most of the quarter’s previous gains, leaving HODLers underwater. Against this backdrop, the question is whether ‘greed’ will dominate ‘FOMO’ for the remainder of the fourth quarter?
Bitcoin is at a major turning point of FOMO-Greed
Bitcoin signals a clear shift towards a bear market structure.
From a technical perspective, BTC has since peaking at $126,000 in early October printed four lower lows, and every attempt to turn resistance into support has failed, leading to repeated liquidity moves on the long side.
The latest slump came when BTC lost the $98,000 bottom. For context, after falling 5.2% on November 14, Bitcoin fell back to early May levels, leaving almost 99% of STHs with unrealized losses.
Source: Glassnode
In short: Bitcoin’s capitulation risk is far from over.
As it stands now, BTC has wiped out all previous cycle gains and November has cemented itself as the second worst month of 2025and 99% of STHs are now underwater, leaving the cohort increasingly exposed to foreclosures.
Against that backdrop, a shift back to FOMO is critical. The question now, however, is whether broader market sentiment will turn in that direction, or whether greed will instead trigger quick exits to stop-losses.
Bearish signals pile up while HODLer incentives erode
Bearish signals are piling up, eroding the incentive for HODL Bitcoin.
For starters, big money doesn’t yet see this “dip” as an opportunity. That’s almost $3 billion flowed out of BTC ETFs this month alone, with more than 50% in the last three days.
This is also reflected in the sentiment. On the Fear & Greed Index, a drop of 6 points in the past 24 hours has pushed the index into “extreme fear” for the first time in more than seven months.
Source: CoinMarketCap
In short, the incentive for STHs to maintain and avoid capitulation is fading.
Looking at the data, Bitcoin’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows the largest supply of $112,000, accounting for 2.97% of BTC’s circulating supply. Importantly, this represents the exact cost basis of STHs.
From a technical perspective, that’s 592,000 BTC at risk of being realized at a loss. In this context, as Bitcoin’s bid support weakens, extreme fear is likely to continue to outweigh greed, paving the way for a deeper correction in the fourth quarter.