Chainlink is struggling below $10 as selling pressure and broader market uncertainty keep the price below a resistance level that has capped any recovery attempt in recent weeks. The price action is frustrating – but data from analyst MorenoDV has identified a structural development in the exchange flow data that remaps where the current weakness is actually running into.
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Binance currently holds approximately 85.1 million LINKs worth approximately $766 million – representing 66.4% of the 128.26 million LINKs held across all exchanges combined. That concentration is the first structural fact that changes how Binance-specific LINK flow data should be interpreted. When two-thirds of all LINK holdings on the exchange are on one platform, extreme net flow days on that platform do not reflect broad market behavior. It is Binance-specific imbalances that effectively set the supply tone for the entire LINK market.
The reserve graph that MorenoDV examines tells a clear and guiding story over a period of several years. Since the peaks of 2022 to 2023, when Binance reserves approached 145 million LINK, the holdings have followed a well-defined downward channel and are now close to the lower limit of around 85 million. The periodic upward spikes visible in the data are real but temporary: bursts rather than trend reversals. The dominant behavior pattern throughout the period is coins leaving the platform.
The net flow data confirms the mechanism behind that structural decline – and what it reveals about who is moving and why significantly changes the interpretation of the current price weakness.
Inflow peaks are noise
The MorenoDV analysis makes the distinction that prevents the intermittent inflow bursts from being misinterpreted as accumulation events. Positive net flow spikes in LINK’s Binance data cluster around volatile periods – times when the price is already moving. And the pattern that follows is more consistent with the arrival of selling pressure than with the building of real buying convictions.
Chainlink Exchange Netflow on Binance | Source: CryptoQuant
High inflow spikes were more likely to be followed by weaker closes over the subsequent one to three days than by price strength. The behavioral interpretation is simple: deposits come in ahead of selling pressure or redistribution activity, rather than holders moving coins to the exchange to buy more. More often than not, the timing of inflows relative to price weakness confirms the direction of intent.
The critical distinction made in the analysis is between inflow activity and accumulation. LINK is regularly deposited with Binance and withdrawn shortly afterwards. Switch to self-managed wallets or competitive locations instead of converting to barter sales. The result is a pattern of short-lived inflow noise that is above a reserve line and continues to float structurally lower. Regardless of the temporary peaks that periodically interrupt the trend.
The structural decline on Binance is not caused by a single event or a cluster of inflow bursts. It is the cumulative expression of a market where the dominant behavior – coins permanently leaving Binance – has persisted despite every temporary inflow spike without reversing the underlying direction. That persistent structural outflow is the signal. Everything else is noise on top of it.
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Chainlink is stuck on critical long-term support
On the weekly time frame, Chainlink remains locked in a long-term downtrend that has defined most of the price action since late 2024 highs around $30. LINK is currently trading around $9, a level that has repeatedly acted as a key support zone in 2025 and 2026. As sellers continue to dominate the broader structure, the chart suggests that bears are struggling to force a decisive break below this area.
Chainlink consolidates around long-term support level | Source: LINKUSDT chart on TradingView
The most noticeable feature is the compression that takes place around $8.50-$9.50. After the sharp decline from the $25 region, LINK spent several months building a base above support rather than falling further. This behavior often reflects a period of long-term equilibrium between buyers and sellers as the market searches for direction.
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However, the trend remains technically bearish. LINK is trading below the 50-week, 100-week and 200-week moving averages, all of which continue to slope downward. The 50-week moving average around $14 and the 100-week moving average around $15.5 now represent key resistance levels that bulls must regain to confirm a structural trend reversal.
For now, $8.50 remains the key support to watch. Maintaining this level keeps the possibility of a long-term accumulation range intact. While a downturn could expose the consolidation zone in 2023 between $6 and $7. Reclaiming $10.50 would be the first signal that buyers are regaining control.
Featured image of ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com