Key Takeaways
What Supports Bitcoin’s Potential Path to $150,000?
The VCDD and SOPR metrics show strong support and resistance zones that could drive upward momentum.
Is Bitcoin’s Traditional Market Cycle Changing?
Institutional adoption may extend the cycle’s duration, suggesting the bull run is still ahead.
Bitcoin [BTC] has had a turbulent October so far, fluctuating between new highs and notable lows. However, this volatility does not necessarily mean the start of a bear market.
Data indicates renewed interest in the market, and in fact, Bitcoin could exceed ‘cycle’ expectations in the coming days.
The road to $150,000
Bitcoin’s path to $150,000 remains plausible, based on the relationship between Value Coin-Days Destroyed (VCDD) and the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which fluctuates within defined zones.
This metric covers four key zones, but two are central to this analysis: Gamma + Epsilon – the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Threshold; Delta + Epsilon: The Short-Term Holder (STH) Threshold.
Source: Alphractal
The LTH level is currently around $147,937 and serves as a resistance zone where upside momentum often experiences a bearish correction. Meanwhile, the STH level around $92,902 acts as a key support range, which historically triggers price increases when tested.
Throughout this cycle, Bitcoin has fluctuated between these two levels. Recently, the price has trended towards the STH support region.
A strong reaction from this level could push Bitcoin towards the higher LTH threshold as capital flows into the market again. However, a break below the short-term threshold could lead to another price decline before any recovery occurs.
Which trend is likely to persist?
AMBCrypto analyzed key market signals to assess Bitcoin’s potential movement if it were to reach the STH level again.
The Binary CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) metric suggests a mildly bearish view as some major holders move their coins – which may be for sale.
The CDD value of 1 indicates that these investors have recently transferred their tokens, indicating short-term selling activity.
Source: CryptoQuant
However, an analysis of the net realized gain/loss metric shows that the recent sell-off was nowhere near capitulation levels.
Blockchain analytics firm Swissblock confirmed the easing selling pressure, noting:
“The upcoming inflation data may fuel near-term volatility, but selling pressure typically eases once the data is digested.”
Is Bitcoin’s Traditional Cycle Ending?
Recent data indicates that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle is nearing an end. The Efficient Market Hypothesis suggests that institutional adoption has changed Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior as it evolves into a global asset.
The market analyst known by the pseudonym Arch physicist explained:
“If Bitcoin does indeed evolve into a global asset, we can expect the cycles to last longer. The higher support level [the LTH threshold] holding up so far may indicate that the real bull run has yet to begin.”
For now, a potential rally for Bitcoin still seems likely as selling pressure cools and there are no signs of market capitulation.