According to @RiggsBTC on On December 6 to X, @RiggsBTC claimed that the current Bitcoin bull run, which began in late 2022 when prices fell to a low of $15,000, marks the beginning of a “super cycle,” a period in which BTC will rally aggressively and extend gains.
Will Bitcoin Reach $9 Million Within Two Years?
The asset manager attributes this potential increase to several factors. At the top of the list is the looming supply shock, given Bitcoin’s expected halving, scheduled for early April 2021. @RiggsBTC noted that with less than 21 million BTC in circulation, reducing supply and continued demand could support Bitcoin and aggressive bulls could feed.
To contextualize the potential size of this expected growth, @RiggsBTC estimates that only if 5% of global wealth, conservatively estimated at well over $1 trillion, which translates to $50 trillion, gains exposure to the limited BTC in circulation, will there be more benefits will be.
From the analyst’s perspective, there will only be about 5 million BTC, most of which will come from “weak hands” selling to “nation states and institutions.” This shift will set the stage for a surge that will see Bitcoin reach $9 million “within 24 months.”
Pierre Rochard, the vice president of research at Riot Platforms, echoed @RiggsBTC’s sentiment, which highlights favorable macroeconomic conditions that are likely to push Bitcoin even higher. Rochard notes that the U.S. government spends $6 trillion, including $4 trillion in taxes, $2 trillion in loans and $1 trillion in interest payments on its $33 trillion debt.
While the government spends huge sums of money on interest payments alone, Bitcoin’s market capitalization remains under $1 trillion. According to CoinMarketCap, BTC had a Market capitalization of $860 billion as of writing on December 6.
Eyes on the SEC and Bitcoin ETFs
In addition to the Bitcoin halving and supporting macroeconomic factors, the community is also looking at regulators. In early December 2023, the crypto community expects the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve the first batch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
This product will provide an opportunity for institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin in a regulated environment, potentially creating a capital wave. Since October, expectations of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States have supported prices.
Still, it remains to be seen how the market will react once the SEC approves this derivative. In the past, the approval of major crypto derivatives products, for example the first Bitcoin Futures product in the United States in December 2018, marked cyclical peaks. After that, prices dropped, dropping from $20,000.
Feature image from Canva, chart from TradingView