Bitcoin has risen above $36,000 and is currently targeting $37,000 Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have revived hopes that a Spot Bitcoin ETF could be approved this year. The analysts maintain their belief that one of these funds has a 90% chance be approved by January 2024.
An approval order “could” happen in November
In a post shared on his X platform (formerly Twitter), Seyffart highlighted a new research note he and Balchunas had just worked on it. From their research, they noted that there is a “short period” that gives the US the opportunity Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve all 12 Spot Bitcoin ETF applications at once.
This short window (which starts on November 9) will last at least eight days, after which it will almost be possible for the SEC to approve all applications at once until next year. The reason for their claim is that the SEC cannot approve a filing that is in the comment stage. It so happens that the commentary phase of the latest filings that the SEC has postponed ends on November 8, which is why they highlighted the window that starts on November 9.
As to why the period will only last about eight days, the SEC is expected to make a decision Hashdex And Franklin’s application on Nov. 17, which could move both applicants into the comment phase. This is because it is expected that the SEC will choose to postpone its decisions on these funds and seek comment from the general public.
Meanwhile, the analysts noted that this window only applies if the SEC approves all twelve filings at once. They explain that the Commission could “theoretically” decide on the other applications from now until January 10, 2024, even if it chooses to postpone its decision on Hashdex and Franklin’s application on November 17. No matter what happens, they still believe there is one 90% chance that one of these funds is approved before January 10 next year.
A spot launch of Bitcoin ETF is not that easy
When asked how long it will take for these funds to be launched after approval, Balchunas said in a X message that he suspected the “19b-4s” applications would be approved in the “not-so-distant future.” After that, it will take a while before the SEC approves the agreement “S-1s” after which it would “probably be days until launch.”
Seyffart also echoed similar sentiments as him declared that there are “two paths” that must be completed before launching an ETF. One of these is the 19b-4 approval, after which the division of Corporation Finance must still sign with the SEC on the S-1s. However, there are no signs that anything has been done about this yet. As such, it could take “weeks or even months” between approval and launch.
Regardless, Bitcoin has noticed the opportunity Discover Bitcoin ETFs could be approved this month and has ridden that wave to above $36,000. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at around $36,700, up over 4% in the past 24 hours. facts from CoinMarketCap.
BTC price above $36,600 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Featured image from The Economic Times, chart from Tradingview.com