According to one analyst, Bitcoin is in a liquidity situation that has emerged even before major rallies. Prices are not going up yet. At press time Bitcoin is trading around $104,500, down 0.5% over the past day.
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Traders previously saw a decline of around 1.8%, taking the price near $103,400, briefly touching $102,850 during the move.
Stablecoin’s signal points to accumulation
CryptoQuant analyst Moreno points out the Stablecoin supply ratioor SSR, as the first clear indicator. The SSR compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the total market capitalization of stablecoins. It has fallen back into the 13 range.
Based on historical measurements, this 13th area hit market lows in mid-2021 and at various points in 2024. Reports indicate that as the SSR fell to similar levels, liquidity quietly built up and buying followed a period of low volatility.
The Liquidity Pattern Appeared Before Every Bitcoin Peak – and It’s Back
“We are witnessing a liquidity configuration that has only happened a handful of times since 2020, and each event marked a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s trajectory.” – By means of @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/vWKcCkyn55
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 11, 2025
Binance Reserve Trends adds a second layer
The second Moreno statistical highlights come from Binance. On that exchange, stablecoin balances are rising, while Bitcoin reserves are shrinking. In plain terms, there are more cash-like tokens on the exchange and fewer coins being held.
That pattern has only appeared a handful of times since 2020, according to the data he referenced. Each time, the move suggested capital was waiting on the sidelines and holders were moving coins from exchanges to longer-term storage.
Market trust can hide big moves
The current trading environment is cautious. Many investors expected one lift following the news that the US Congress has approved the short term federal funding However, through January 30, crypto did not rise with other risky assets.
Part of the capital was returned to shares. At the same time, major investors took profits after recent highs and momentum cooled. That mix shows how macro events can shift flows without immediately turning into crypto purchases.
There is still a risk: the structure could break
Moreno warns that this liquidity zone acts as a final structural support. If the numbers are definitively off, it could mean a deeper reset before there is a sustainable recovery.
In that scenario, purchases would likely be delayed and volatility would increase. This is not a guaranteed outcome, but it is an obvious risk that traders keep a close eye on.
Outlook: Limited downside, upward growth
Based on reports and signals along the chain, Moreno believes the risk-benefit ratio favors buyers at these levels. He points to the built-up supply of stablecoins and the declining BTC reserves on the exchange as reasons for that view.
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Historical patterns suggest that the last three months of the year often yield profits for Bitcoin, but past behavior does not promise future returns.
For now, the indicators show that capital is parked in stablecoins and fewer coins are available on major exchanges. That creates a situation where new purchases can quickly push the market higher if sentiment turns.
Yet the opposite is possible: a break below these levels would reshape the cycle and force many participants to reconsider their positions. The markets will decide which path will be next.
Featured image of Gemini, chart from TradingView