Is the global financial system heading towards a breaking point?
So far, markets have repeatedly raised the possibility of a 2008-style crash in 2026. Based on current macro data, this is no longer just a theory. The main driver behind this story is rising financing costs.
Government bond markets are clearly under pressure. The yield on 30-year US government bonds has risen above 5.14%, while the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has risen to 2.80%. Together, these moves are tightening global liquidity. Still, some in the market see it as a potential trigger for a Bitcoin in this setup [BTC] super cycle.
The main question is: why would this be bullish for BTC?
It mainly comes down to rising debt and expenses. The US now has a debt burden of more than $39 trillion, while demand for government bonds is weakening. At the same time, massive spending on AI infrastructure is driving up demand for energy, chips and materials, increasing structural inflationary pressures. In fact, recent reports suggest that around $725 billion could be spent on AI infrastructure by 2026 alone, reinforcing this trend.
Against this background, rising interest rates are putting pressure on government loans. With debt levels already at high levels, higher interest costs make it more difficult for the government to maintain financing at the same pace. This of course also puts pressure on the Federal Reserve, increasing uncertainty about further interest rate increases.
That’s why some analysts see this as a potential trigger for Bitcoin’s super cycle.
BTC’s short-term volatility versus long-term liquidity
For the Bitcoin super cycle, separating the short-term noise from the long-term reality is crucial.
When bond yields rise, funds often lose money and are forced to sell assets, including Bitcoin. Because many investors still view Bitcoin as a risk asset, its value usually falls along with stocks during panic selling, leading to sharp moves in the short term. But in the long term, this is often considered part of Bitcoin’s broader liquidity-driven cycle.
What reinforces this trend is that Bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows of over $1 billion this month alone. This is the weakest ETF performance since the first quarter of 2026. As a result, institutional funds are seeing their valuations come under pressure, which is also reflected in their balance sheets. However, this is exactly where the market sees a potential setup for a Bitcoin supercycle.
More generally, the macro picture tends in that direction.
Final summary
- Rising debt, higher yields and weak liquidity are driving Bitcoin selling and ETF outflows in the short term.
- Some view this stress as bullish in the long term, as future liquidity support could fuel a Bitcoin supercycle.