- Long-term holders can start accumulating BTC, while short-term holders gradually distribute their holdings.
- Miners have seen increased profitability despite the increasing difficulty of mining one BTC.
Bitcoin [BTC] has set a new price level above $100,000 for the second time this year, reaching an all-time high of over $109,000.
This milestone suggested that $100,000 could potentially serve as a new psychological support level, with bullish market sentiment providing further impetus for price increases.
AMBCrypto analysis showed that the continued exchange of BTC between short- and long-term holders further contributed to the bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency.
Will history repeat itself if BTC changes hands?
According to insights from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin holders have started selling at a loss in the short term, as evidenced by the Short-Term Holder (STH) SOPR multiple.
This metric compares the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) over 30- and 365-day periods.
Normally, a value above 1 indicates that STHs are making profits, while a value below 1 indicates losses. Current data shows that STHs are being sold at a loss.
Source: Glassnode
Historically, when the STH SOPR turns negative, it often attracts long-term holders (LTHs) to accumulate more BTC.
LTHs are considered a very bullish cohort in the market as they hold BTC for at least 155 days.
This behavior reduces circulating supply, meaning that accumulation at this level could positively impact the price of BTC and drive it higher.
Could Miner Profitability Cause a Price Pump?
As long- and short-term BTC holders actively trade positions, miner profitability has reached new highs despite mounting mining problems.
Mining issues are a mechanism designed to maintain the security of the Bitcoin network by ensuring consistent block production over time.
As the difficulty increases, it becomes harder for miners to process transactions and earn rewards.
Source: Glassnode
According to Glassnode’s Difficulty Regression Model, miners experience profitability of around 3x. The current cost of mining 1 BTC is $33,900, while the price of BTC at the time of writing was $104,900.
This significant profit margin could incentivize miners to hold on to their BTC reserves as the value of the asset increases.
This behavior, combined with accumulation by long-term holders (LTHs), reduces the circulating supply of BTC and could pave the way for a potential price increase.
Could BTC be on track for a 500% rise?
BTC’s current price performance appears to be in line with historical trends, particularly the bull market rally observed between 2015 and 2018, according to data from Glassnode that analyzes BTC’s price movements since the bottom of the cycle.
Based on this metric, BTC has the potential to rise by approximately 562%, or 5.62 times its current price of $104,850.
Source: Glassnode
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2025–2026
If this prediction is correct, BTC could surpass $589,000 by the end of the current cycle, which would mark a new all-time high for the cryptocurrency.
So far, market sentiment remains bullish, reinforcing the possibility of BTC continuing its upward trajectory.