Bitcoin has continued to struggle to establish a firm bullish grip and has made lower lows after failing to move past the $80,000 level to $82,000 following 12 days of consolidation there.
The halt in capital reduction offers a glimmer of hope, but demand has yet to catch up in any meaningful way.
Bitcoin’s eight-month deleveraging cycle is slowing
Bitcoin [BTC] has undergone an eight-month period of deleveraging, a process by which traders reduce their exposure to the asset.
This typically occurs during periods of high volatility and unpredictability as traders try to protect themselves from excessive losses. The process that began in October 2025 saw open interest plummet from its peak levels.
Binance data now shows that interest is returning. From March, Open Interest rose from $6.4 billion to $8.96 billion, an increase of $2.56 billion that is slightly above the 180-day moving average of $8.65 billion.
While this suggests that traders are returning to the perpetual market and opening positions on both the long and short sides, it does not guarantee that a rally is imminent.
It just shows that volatility has decreased to a level where the market feels fit to place bets again.
Discover the strongest net inflows over 30 days
A major factor that is still in play and central to determining whether Bitcoin rallies is spot market activity.
Similar to the slowdown in ongoing deleveraging, buying activity in the Bitcoin Spot market has increased over the past month.
CoinGlass data shows that Bitcoin net inflows in the past 30 days were strongest over the 30, 40, 50, and 60 day periods.
The 30-day net flow is negative $1.19 billion, meaning more Bitcoin has been withdrawn into private wallets than has gone into centralized exchanges, reflecting the long-term outlook of investors.
The 40-, 50- and 60-day figures came in at negative $962 million, $780 million and negative $1.12 billion respectively, all comparably lower.
A negative net flow indicates that investors are putting Bitcoin into private wallets rather than positioning themselves to sell, and the larger this negative value, the more pronounced the long-term behavior.
However, the percentage ratio between the change in net inflows and market capitalization remains at a minimum of -0.0080%, making this a slightly bullish signal rather than a full confirmation of recovery.
Apparent demand is declining rapidly
The apparent demand in the Bitcoin market over the past 30 days remains completely minimal.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that demand has shrunk at a pace last seen on January 10, meaning purchasing power and real buying interest for Bitcoin remained low.
Until this demand starts to return in a measurable way, the recovery signals from deleveraging and spot inflows are unlikely to be enough to drive a sustainable price increase.
Final summary
- Open Interest has risen from $6.4 billion to $8.96 billion since March, signaling a return of perpetual market participants.
- Net inflows over the past 30 days are negative $1.19 billion, although the net inflows to market cap ratio of -0.0080% keeps the signal slightly bullish rather than compelling.