Bitcoin market cycles have done that many times followed recognizable technical structures, and one analyst now believes these repeating structures could already be pointing toward the next big bottom.
This is the fundamental principle behind how Elliott Wave, Harmonic Patterns, and Wyckoff theory work: if you trade an asset long enough, it begins to exhibit pattern recall. At this moment, that memory speaks. And it points to a Bitcoin price bottom below $40,000.
Pattern memory and Bitcoin’s retracement history
A chart shared by market commentator Lisa N Edwards outlined how Bitcoin’s retracement behavior could determine where the current cycle ultimately stabilizes during the current downturn. The analysis revolves around the concept of pattern memory, the idea that assets with a long trading history tend to repeat certain behavioral patterns in cycles.
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Pattern memory shows that Bitcoin’s previous market cycles have consistently ended near specific Fibonacci retracement levels from the previous peak. These levels have always functioned as areas where Bitcoin price eventually found a sustainable bottom before a new bull phase began.
During the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin eventually bottomed near the 0.86 Fibonacci retracement. The 2017 cycle followed a similar structure, reaching the retracement low of 0.86 again before entering a new accumulation phase. However, the bottom of the 2021 market cycle was slightly higher, around the 0.786 retracement level.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @LisaNEdwards On X
Bitcoin Pattern Memory: Where is the Next Real Bottom?
If October 2025 was the real cycle height for Bitcoin, as the monthly chart on the 1M timeframe suggests History gives us a road map where the price is likely to go before the next big bull run begins. Applying the same retracement framework to the current market cycle produces a range where Bitcoin could ultimately bottom out if history repeats itself.
Charting the Fibonacci retracement of the current cycle, from the cycle low to the October 2025 high, reveals three critical zones. The 0.618 is around $57,000-$58,000, which also closely tracks the Weekly 200 Moving Average. However, this level only may not represent the final lowbased on how previous cycles behaved.
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Instead, deeper retracement levels appear more consistent with historical patterns. This is where the 0.786 and 0.86 retacements come into play. The 0.786 retracement level is near $39,000 and coincides with the 100 monthly moving average. Below that, the 0.86 retracement level falls around $31,000.
Both levels have previously defined major cycle bottoms; therefore, Bitcoin’s next low could be in the long term somewhere in the range of $39,000 to $31,000 if the October 2025 peak turns out to be the real cycle high.
Some market commentators have suggested lower downside targets, including projections that Bitcoin could revisit the $20,000 region. However, the pattern memory analysis shows that such a decrease would occur a full breakdown of Bitcoin’s historical cycle behavior.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com